We received a glimpse of college football in Week 0, but this upcoming Saturday features the first complete schedule of games, highlighted by No. 1 Texas traveling to No. 3 Ohio State and No. 9 LSU facing No. 4 Clemson. Throughout the season, I will be sharing my Top 20 power rankings for betting purposes. Here’s my take as we approach Week 1, with Texas and Penn State topping my rankings.

I will categorize the rankings into tiers to help bettors identify the cutoff points for each group. As the year progresses, we’ll adjust team positions based on results and observe shifts within the betting landscape. Additionally, I will set the point spreads starting from Tier 1 relative to the other tiers.

College Football Week 1 Power Rankings

Tier 1

1. Texas Longhorns
2. Penn State Nittany Lions

Texas and Penn State stand as my top two teams heading into the season. I would place the Longhorns as a 2-point favorite on a neutral field. If I had to choose a winner right now, I would lean toward Texas, assuming Arch Manning meets expectations.

With one of the toughest season starters in memory, the Longhorns won’t drop too far, even if they face a loss against Ohio State. Penn State enters the season with a seasoned lineup, a veteran quarterback, and one of the best schedules among title contenders, making them significant favorites in their early matches before facing Oregon on September 27 in Happy Valley.

Tier 2 (+3 from Tier 1)

3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Clemson Tigers
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
6. LSU Tigers

This tier has teams closely rated to each other. I have Georgia as No. 3 because they would be slightly favored over others in a neutral setting. I also predict Texas or Penn State would be 3-4 point favorites against them, with Georgia as an exception.

I decided to bet on LSU at +4 against Clemson in Week 1. The odds shifted significantly, prompting me to consider it a value bet. I rate Clemson as a -3 favorite for this matchup, so any line higher than +4 is worth betting on.

I previously bet on Clemson at +1600 to win the title back in June, which has since decreased to +900. Similar to what I see with Texas and Ohio State, I don’t believe the losers of the LSU vs. Clemson matchup will slip too far in my rankings; however, a win on the road would boost LSU significantly.

Tier 3 (+4 from Tier 1)

7. Alabama Crimson Tide
8. Oregon Ducks
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This tier consists of teams starting with inexperienced quarterbacks, raising the stakes on their performances. Thus, Texas or Penn State would be established as at least 4-point favorites against these teams early in the season.

Alabama’s situation is especially intriguing. They have a talented roster prepared to contend, but we need clarity on whether Ty Simpson is the right choice at quarterback. Coach Kalen DeBoer enters a much better phase in his second year at Alabama. However, if they take a significant loss against Florida State as favorites, they might fall the furthest heading into Week 2.

In contrast, Notre Dame is favored against Miami on August 31, but I think that game is closer to a toss-up. The Irish possess one of the least experienced quarterback rosters after veteran Riley Leonard’s departure. Freshman CJ Carr will take charge against Miami. I believe Notre Dame can build momentum throughout the season; if they lose this game, I plan to target them for championship futures later on.

Tier 4 (+7 from Tier 1)

10. Texas A&M Aggies
11. Miami Hurricanes
12. Ole Miss Rebels

This tier includes three teams capable of making a title run if luck favors them. Currently, I estimate Texas and Penn State to be around a touchdown favorite against all three on a neutral field. Miami holds potential to leap higher if they secure a home win against Notre Dame.

Texas A&M is returning 15 starters, featuring sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed. The Aggies led the SEC in scoring last season and might enhance their record in 2025 if Reed flourishes as a quarterback. They have two introductory home games before traveling to Notre Dame, where a victory could elevate their ranking significantly.

Ole Miss had a chance to reach the playoffs last year, guided by Jaxson Dart and a solid defense. This year’s team enters the season with more uncertainties. Lane Kiffin has a track record of developing quarterbacks and Austin Simmons shows promise. I anticipate them entering the LSU matchup on September 27 with a 4-0 record, but I would position the Tigers as 3-point favorites in this contest.

Tier 5 (+9 from Tier 1)

13. Michigan Wolverines
14. Florida Gators

This tier highlights teams that have the potential to make a College Football Playoff run, yet need certain factors to align. Some analysts have high hopes for Michigan, but I think they may need another year before being serious championship contenders, especially with quarterback Bryce Underwood. They have seen growth in the depth and talent entering Sherrone Moore’s second season. A Week 2 match against Oklahoma could prove pivotal, and I would deem Michigan a slight favorite in that contest.

Florida is a popular sleeper pick for a national title hopes. Their talented roster is faced with a challenging schedule for the second consecutive year, and I’m also skeptical if Billy Napier is the right fit as head coach. Yet, coaches often adapt when they have a quarterback as DJ Lagway. I would advise against placing a bet on Florida at +4000 for the title, as I don’t consider them serious contenders just yet.

Tier 6 (+13 from Tier 1)

15. SMU Mustangs
16. South Carolina Gamecocks
17. Auburn Tigers

SMU stands to gain immensely from NIL, benefiting from substantial booster contributions. Historically, they attempted this 40 years too early, but now the system permits it appropriately. This team isn’t a flash in the pan; Kevin Jennings is back at quarterback, steering one of the most formidable offenses in the ACC, and I anticipate SMU to once again vie for a playoff position.

South Carolina appears a bit overrated as the season begins, with head coach Shane Beamer managing an impressive squad but losing three starters from one of college football’s toughest defensive lines. They face an easier stretch initially, which could see them start 5-0 before heading to LSU on October 11. Such a fast start might create significant betting opportunities against them later.

Auburn relies entirely on Jackson Arnold, their quarterback, to determine how far they can go this season. They struggled at times last year, though strong defensive rankings help. The potential for a positive leap hinges on whether Hugh Freeze secures the right player for the position. Notably, the Tigers are small favorites in their opening game against Baylor, and their performance will dictate the direction of their season.

Tier 7 (+15 from Tier 1)

18. Oklahoma Sooners
19. Iowa State Cyclones
20. Utah Utes

This group contains teams capable of aspiring for the College Football Playoff, although that is likely their limit.

Iowa State has made an entrance into the rankings following a Week 0 triumph over Kansas State. The Cyclones are not flashy, but they are exceptionally well-managed and possess an experienced roster. They have become the favorites for the Big 12 championship following their previous win in Ireland.

Oklahoma presents intrigue, with a concern that Brent Venables might excel more as a recruiter and coordinator than as head coach. They host Michigan on September 6 in one of the thrilling matchups early in the year. Among the Tier 7 teams, Oklahoma is the most likely to climb in rankings, although the challenge lies ahead.

Next four: Illinois Fighting Illini, Tennessee Volunteers, USC Trojans, TCU Horned Frogs