The NFL kicks off the 2025 season this Thursday, making it crucial to finalize your Week 1 survivor picks. In 2024, the New England Patriots shocked many by defeating the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, resulting in many players’ early exit from survivor pools. The goal for survivor strategies is not just about the immediate outcome, but also considering the value of teams as the season progresses.

Current odds reveal five games with a significant spread of 5.5 points or more. These include:

• Bengals vs. Browns (+5.5)
• Cardinals vs. Saints (+6.5)
• Broncos vs. Titans (+8.5)

Survivor players often focus on these matches, but which favorites offer the best value? Before confirming your picks, check which team SportsLine’s projection model highly recommends. The model has successfully simulated NFL games 10,000 times and has achieved impressive returns for $100 players. It has performed particularly well, going 31-15 with top-rated picks in 2024. Using the model’s insights can significantly enhance your chances in survivor pools, where the strategy is to choose one team to win each week without repeating selections.

For Week 1, the model advises caution with the Arizona Cardinals against the New Orleans Saints. Despite being 6.5-point favorites and coming off an 8-9 season last year, the Cardinals are only projected to win 58% of simulations. Their inconsistent track record, having only one winning season since 2015, casts doubt on their reliability. Conversely, the Saints, poised to be among the least competitive teams in 2025, had a better start last season.

Now is the moment to refine your selection for Week 1’s NFL survivor pool, and you can view the full analysis exclusively at SportsLine. New users might also consider exploring the DraftKings promo code, which provides $200 in bonus bets and additional discounts for NFL Sunday Ticket.