For the second consecutive year, the NFL showcases a Week 1 Friday night matchup in Brazil, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs, who are the defending AFC champions, aim to continue their winning streak against the Chargers, having prevailed in their last seven encounters since 2021—six of which were decided by a single possession.

In this clash, focus is drawn to the quarterbacks: Justin Herbert of the Chargers faces off against the legendary Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. According to the latest NFL odds, Herbert has an over/under of 33.5 for passing attempts, whereas Mahomes has an over/under of 35.5 yards for his longest completion.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at the Neo Quimica Arena in São Paulo, Brazil. As NFL props become available for nearly every player in every game through sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can guide bettors in identifying profitable options for their Chiefs vs. Chargers selections. New users can also benefit from sportsbook promos such as the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, allowing a $100 No Sweat Bet in FanCash on game day.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has yielded over $7,000 in profit for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its launch, achieving a record of 31-15 on these selections in 2024. Here are the top player prop picks from the model for the Chiefs vs. Chargers:

Top Friday Night Football Player Prop Picks for Week 1:

• Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, Over 245.5 passing yards (-125)
• Ladd McConkey, Chargers, Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114)
• Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs, Under 50.5 rushing yards (-114)

Combine these picks for +535 odds (risk $100 to win $534) at DraftKings (odds may vary).

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-111)

The model forecasts Mahomes to achieve over 283 yards passing, presenting around 40 yards of leeway against his over/under. Notably, Mahomes has exceeded this total in six of his last eight showdowns against the Chargers. Given the defensive challenge posed by Los Angeles’ front line, it’s likely Mahomes will have to take on a more significant role in the passing game this week.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers, Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

In his rookie season, McConkey surpassed 71 yards in six out of his last seven matchups, including a remarkable 9-197-1 performance during the Chargers’ playoff game against Houston. In his previous encounter with the Chiefs in 2024, he recorded 5 catches for 67 yards but can anticipate more than double-digit targets on Friday night. The model predicts him at 92.9 yards, surpassing the odds-makers’ projection by over 20 yards.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs, Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Chiefs averaged less than four yards per carry against Los Angeles in their two games last season. The model projects Pacheco to rush for just 38.6 yards, significantly under the total posted by sportsbooks. With Kareem Hunt as the main pass-catching back, Pacheco may find himself sidelined for extended periods in the second half if Kansas City falls behind, limiting his rushing opportunities.

Want more Week 1 NFL selections? You can find more options, including spread bets, totals, and money-line bets for every Week 1 NFL game here, all derived from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.

Need additional guidance from SportsLine? Consider checking out the top Week 1 NFL picks from expert Adam Silverstein, who boasts an impressive 84-53-4 mark (+2577) on his previous 141 NFL ATS picks.