No double-digit favorites have faltered in the NFL’s 2025 season thus far, yet Week 3 delivered a notable upset when the Packers lost to the Browns as 7.5-point favorites. This outcome was a significant setback for NFL survivor players, who must now adjust their choices for Week 4.

Here’s a breakdown of key matchups:

• Bills vs. Saints (-16.5): The Bills are favored but many players have already used them.
• Patriots vs. Panthers (-5.5): The Patriots are coming off a loss and face the Panthers, who recently secured a significant win against the Falcons.

Mike Vrabel

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To make informed selections this week, consider the following:

• The Patriots’ game could be closer than anticipated, with the model estimating their win rate at just 58% against the Panthers, a low figure for a home favorite.
• Drake Maye, the starting quarterback, has shown potential but is still adjusting. This week’s strategic picks should lean towards teams that haven’t been overused in survivor pools but have a strong chance of winning.

For optimal strategies and specific recommendations, check SportsLine’s advanced projections.