In case anyone needed a reminder, Aaron Rodgers—the 41-year-old Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback, a veteran of 21 seasons, four-time NFL MVP and future Hall of Famer—attended his press conference after the Steelers’ 23-9 victory over the Browns on Sunday, donning a black baseball cap that read: NOT MY FIRST RODEO.
So, when asked if he thinks his team is gearing up to be a contender in the AFC, Rodgers’ words carried significant weight.
“Well, that’s where we want to be, and we’re positioning ourselves to start entering the conversation,” he stated. “But a lot can happen.”
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SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team and Projection Model echo Rodgers’ sentiment that it’s time to take Pittsburgh seriously in the AFC. The Steelers (4-1) currently lead the AFC North, ahead by 2.5 games over the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4), and could extend their lead with a win against the Bengals on Thursday at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the injury-riddled Ravens and Browns sit at the bottom of the division with matching 1-5 records.
According to the projection model, no team in the AFC has a higher chance of winning its division than the Steelers (87.8%). Only the Buccaneers hold a higher probability in the entire league at 93.5%. In fact, only the Bills (22.4%) are projected to have a better chance of winning the AFC compared to Pittsburgh (16.5%).
The model’s predictions are striking given that it expects the Steelers to finish with only the third-best record in the conference, trailing both the Colts (5-1) and Bills (4-2).
| AFC team | Projected wins | Win division | Reach playoffs | Win AFC | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 11.4 | 71.1% | 93.2% | 15.3% | 6.3% |
| Bills | 11.2 | 68.1% | 91.7% | 22.4% | 11.7% |
| Steelers | 10.7 | 87.8% | 92.5% | 16.5% | 7.4% |
| Broncos | 10.7 | 37.5% | 81.8% | 12.9% | 6.7% |
| Chiefs | 10.3 | 34.4% | 76.4% | 15.7% | 8.7% |
| Patriots | 9.8 | 31.6% | 65.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Chargers | 9.8 | 28.0% | 70.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Jaguars | 9.4 | 19.6% | 56.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Texans | 8.7 | 9.3% | 44.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
Come Thursday night against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh’s match against the Bengals will be crucial for keeping pace with Buffalo and Indianapolis. The Bills have a more manageable remaining schedule compared to Pittsburgh, while the Colts have the advantage with an extra win and a bye week remaining.
Pittsburgh heads into the matchup on a three-game winning streak, while the Bengals have lost four straight since losing starting quarterback Joe Burrow indefinitely due to an injury. Pittsburgh’s defense has been a critical factor during their winning stretch, allowing just 14.7 points per game over the last three games and forcing seven turnovers with 17 sacks. In their last game against Cleveland, the Steelers inflicted 16 hits on Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the second-most inflicted by any NFL team this season.
With 10 forced turnovers this year, tied for third-most in the league, the Steelers’ defense poses a challenge for a Bengals team that has turned the ball over 11 times, tying them for the most in the NFL.
The Steelers are currently favored by 5.5 points over the Bengals for this game.
However, Thursday night games on the road have historically been challenging for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have lost eight of their last nine Thursday road games under coach Mike Tomlin, including four in a row. Given Pittsburgh’s current form, that trend is now under threat.
“Thursday is all about the league and making money, and we understand that,” Rodgers commented. “It used to be just Thanksgiving Thursdays, and they added obviously Thursday games. And then Amazon coming in with a nice chunk of change. So we know what it’s all about. But it’s the same; everybody’s got at least one of these, so we just suck it up. We go on the road and take care of business, and we get a little break.”
No one knows this better than Rodgers.
