Although pitchers and catchers have started reporting to camps across Florida and Arizona ahead of the exhibition season, Major League Baseball’s offseason isn’t quite finished yet. A couple of big names could still change teams in the upcoming weeks. Among them are third basemen Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado, who have collectively made 10 All-Star appearances.
Predictably, the fates of Bregman and Arenado seem connected. The latest rumors suggest that Bregman is weighing offers from several teams, including the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, and Houston Astros. The destination of Bregman could also influence whether Arenado, currently with the St. Louis Cardinals, is traded before Opening Day. While only the Red Sox and Astros have been linked with both players this winter, it’s likely that other teams will look into acquiring Arenado over time.
Given this context, CBS Sports decided to analyze which player has the edge at this point in their careers by comparing their offensive, defensive, and contractual statuses. The piece also includes a declaration of an overall ‘winner’—the player I would choose to have on my team.
1. Offense
Bregman and Arenado have both had impressive offensive seasons, each owning at least one Silver Slugger Award. Bregman shows a significant advantage moving forward, largely due to recent performance.
Specifically, Bregman has outperformed Arenado in recent years, boasting a 124 OPS+ compared to Arenado’s 119.OPS+ is a park-adjusted measure, ensuring that Bregman’s stats are not artificially inflated by playing in a favorable environment. Bregman has averaged an additional home run per season over this period, alongside greater baserunning value. In terms of advanced stats, he also holds the upper hand with better average exit velocity and whiff rate, indicating stronger bat-to-ball skills.
While Bregman’s future offensive contributions are uncertain, especially if he plays in a less advantageous ballpark, Arenado is also concerning, as he is nearing three years older than Bregman and coming off his worst full season since his rookie year.
2. Defense
Notably, while there are valid concerns about their offensive output, both Bregman and Arenado excel defensively. Both players rank in the 90th percentile or higher for individual defensive play. According to Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, they are among the league’s top defensive players.
However, Arenado get the edge; he has historically been more productive defensively, earning ten of their eleven combined Gold Glove Awards. Recent seasons have seen him save between 22 and 26 runs, while Bregman’s numbers stand at 7 to 9 runs saved.
Bregman does possess some versatility with his ability to shift to second base if required, but this wouldn’t negate the defensive gap. Therefore, Arenado takes this category.
3. Contract
Bregman’s offense is compelling versus Arenado’s defense, making their contracts the deciding factor. Arenado is projected to earn $74 million over the next three seasons, with the Rockies covering $10 million. Thus, any team acquiring Arenado would owe him $64 million through 2027, or just over $21 million annually.
Bregman’s forthcoming contract is yet to be finalized, but previous predictions suggested a six-year, $162 million deal, which would amount to $98 million more than Arenado’s total costs (excluding the Rockies’ contribution) and $6 million more each year.
Despite the higher costs associated with Bregman, the combination of risk and potential creates a preference among teams for him over Arenado. Bregman’s younger age and offensive prowess offer a favorable risk profile.
In conclusion, my preference would lean towards Bregman over Arenado as the more favorable choice as the offseason progresses.
