Each Sunday during the season, I preview noteworthy college football games early in the week, offering my preliminary thoughts and recommendations on whether to bet now or wait for potentially better lines. To clarify, I’ll always indicate if I’ve personally bet on the game to avoid any confusion.

My official Week 10 betting picks will be published later in the week, and I will also share all my selections in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I place bets. This article primarily aims to provide guidance for securing the best betting numbers for high-profile games every Saturday.

Here are my early assessments of the Week 10 matchups:

Ohio State (-20.5) vs. Penn State

How troubling is Penn State’s situation this year? The prior line for this match was Ohio State -3.5 back in the summer, and it’s rare to see a 17-point shift between two elite teams. Since oddsmakers established this line for what was expected to be a significant matchup, Penn State has faced four consecutive losses, dismissed its coach, and lost its starting quarterback for the rest of the season. It’s no surprise the line shifted from Ohio State -17.5 to a hefty 20.5.

I don’t foresee the line reverting to favor Penn State. The Buckeyes possess the top defense in college football, and their offense is gaining momentum, having scored 110 points in three recent games. My recommendation is to take Ohio State now, with them favored by less than three touchdowns. If you’re leaning towards Penn State, hold out for a better line.

Bet: Ohio State -20.5

Mississippi State (+4.5) vs. Arkansas

This matchup perfectly illustrates the importance of betting based on the number. Coming off an overtime loss to Texas where they squandered a lead, Mississippi State is undoubtedly in a tough spot. However, Arkansas has also struggled, losing even in favorable positions, including a recent home defeat to a struggling Auburn team. Now, why are they favored by 4.5 points?

Arkansas has suffered six consecutive losses, five of which were by single digits despite leading in the fourth quarter. Their defense is allowing a staggering 40.1 points during this losing run.

While I recognize the adverse betting spot, I actually see Mississippi State as a slight favorite in this scenario and expect the line to drop. I would advise betting on the Bulldogs at +4.5 while it’s still available.

Bet: Mississippi State +4.5

Miami (-11.5) vs. SMU

SMU nearly pulled off an upset last week against a team where Wake Forest fumbled crucial opportunities late in the game. The Mustangs haven’t impressed me throughout the season, and I tend to favor Miami in this match. However, now isn’t the time to impulsively bet on the Hurricanes at -11.5. The line has dropped from 12.5 while I was drafting this article and I anticipate it continuing to decrease.

Professional bettors are keen on double-digit home underdogs. While I like Miami, I estimate the line to be in the neighborhood of -10, making the opening line a bit elevated. Watch for the number to drop further, possibly falling below 10. That would be the signal to consider betting on the Canes. If you’re hedging your bets with the home dog, I suggest placing a wager early as 11.5 might be the best you’ll find, offering value on the Mustangs at that line.

Wait: Miami -9.5 or better