The Houston Texans have achieved a commendable turnaround this season after starting with three losses, now standing at 5-5. They trail the Jacksonville Jaguars by a single game for the final wild card spot in the AFC. Despite this apparent progress, the Texans’ prospects for playoff success feel precarious as they gear up to face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. With playoff aspirations on the line, the Texans find themselves in a situation that is much more precarious than just being a game behind suggests.

“I think we’ve really echoed in the building that every game is a must-win,” said Houston quarterback Davis Mills ahead of the matchup. Mills is set to take the helm for a third consecutive week while CJ Stroud continues his recovery from a concussion sustained in a previous game.

In terms of playoff chances, the Texans currently sit at a mere 20.5% likelihood of making it to the postseason, which ranks lower than many of their AFC counterparts. Their future games against quality teams place an additional weight on this upcoming matchup, where a loss could drastically drop their playoff hopes.

Meanwhile, the Bills also have much at risk with a strong playoff position of 92%, which could waver with a loss.

Current Playoff Chances

Team	Chances
Texans	20.5%
Bills	92.0%