The 2025 NBA Cup has kicked off its knockout phase, featuring a quarterfinal showdown between the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic this Tuesday. This matchup is dubbed the Sunshine State Rivalry, stemming from both teams’ geographic ties as they battle in Florida.

The Orlando Magic, holding a record of 14-10, impressively sailed through group play with a perfect 4-0 score, securing the East’s top seed. In comparison, the Miami Heat, also at 14-10, managed a 3-1 record in the Cup, landing a wildcard spot. Notably, neither team has advanced beyond the quarterfinals in prior NBA Cups.

In terms of player availability, Franz Wagner is confirmed out due to an ankle injury for Orlando, while Tyler Herro’s status is still uncertain as he deals with a toe issue after missing the previous two games.

The game is set to tip-off at 6 p.m. ET from the Kia Center in Orlando, Florida. The Magic have bested the Heat in both games they’ve faced this season, including a narrow 106-105 victory last Friday. Based on current odds, Orlando is favored by 1.5 points, with the total points set at 235.5.

A critical analysis from SportsLine Projection Model, which has simulated the game 10,000 times, indicates several insights:

• Projected Spread: Magic -1.5
• Over/Under: 235.5 points
• Money line: Magic -112, Heat -107

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