The opening round of the 2025 College Football Playoff takes place this Saturday night, featuring the fifth-ranked Oregon Ducks against the twelfth-ranked James Madison Dukes. James Madison secured their place in the Playoff by winning the Sun Belt championship, thanks to an upset by Duke against Virginia in the ACC title match. Oregon, with an impressive 11-1 record, missed the Big Ten title game due to a lack of tiebreaker advantages. The victorious team will meet fourth-seeded Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium. Currently, Oregon is favored by 20.5 points, while the over/under stands at 45.5. Before making any bets on the James Madison vs. Oregon matchup, check out the predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

Betting Information

• Spread: Oregon -20.5 (-113)
• Over/Under: 45.5 points
• Money Line: Oregon -1923, James Madison +1013
• Streaming: HBO Max

Why Oregon Can Cover

Oregon enters the playoffs on a high note with three consecutive covers and a solid 8-4 mark against the spread this year. As the largest favorite thus far among all bowl and playoff games, they benefit from playing at home and possessing a significant talent advantage. Quarterback Dante Moore is seen as a potential high draft pick for the 2026 NFL Draft, having thrown for 2,733 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. The Ducks were also third in the Big Ten for scoring defense, averaging just 14.8 points allowed per game.

Why James Madison Can Cover

James Madison concluded the season with an 8-5 record against the spread, achieving a 1-0 record as road underdogs after covering at Louisville earlier this season. Known for their strong running game, the Dukes average 245.7 rushing yards per game, led by Wayne Knight with 1,263 yards and Alonza Barnett III with 544 yards and 14 touchdowns. Their ground game approach could help them stay within the spread versus an Oregon team that faced difficulties in its last CFP appearance.

Making Your Picks

Considering the matchup’s simulation runs, SportsLine’s projection model predicts the total to exceed 45.5 points. Additionally, one side of the spread has shown a higher success probability close to 60%.

Ultimately, who will emerge victorious in the showdown between Oregon and James Madison?