We discussed last week’s betting trends, successfully predicting four out of five games in which players were potentially resting. Now, the focus shifts to the playoff games starting Saturday. The matchup features the Rams heading to Carolina, taking on the Panthers, who will enter this game as significant underdogs.

Historical Context: Home underdogs favored by four or more points in playoff matches have historically performed well, boasting a 9-0 record against the spread (ATS) over the last fifty years. Specifically, the data indicates that while previous underdogs often lost, many emerged victorious outright in crucial playoff games.

The most notable example occurred in the 2020 playoffs when Tom Brady faced off against a 7-9 Washington squad led by Taylor Heinicke. Despite being 10-point favorites, Brady’s team narrowly covered the spread after a nail-biting conclusion.

In 2011, the Steelers met the Broncos, where Tim Tebow led a surprising win which catapulted Denver into a long playoff journey. Likewise, the New Orleans Saints faced a stunning defeat against the underdog Seahawks.

Current Projections: My assessment places the Rams at a projected spread of -7. Notably, trends suggest a semblance of hesitation from historical performance outcomes of heavy favorites on the road.

As the playoff scenarios evolve, watch for updated power ratings including the Bears and remaining teams in the playoff mix.

Wild Card Round Power Ratings

Team	WC	18	17	16	15
LAR	7.5	7.5	7.5	8	7
SEA	7	7	7	6	6.5
JAC	5.5	5	5	3	2
PHI	5.5	4.5	4.5	3	2
NE	5	5	5	4	4
DEN	5	4	4	4.5	2.5
BUF	5	4	5	4.5	4.5
LAC	3.5	2.5	4	1.5	1
HOU	3	3.5	3.5	3.5	3
SF	2.5	4.5	4.5	3	2
GB	2.5	0	1.5	3	5
CHI	1.5	3.5	2.5	1.5	1
PIT	1.5	-1.5	1.5	1	0
CAR	-1.5	-1.5	-1	-2.5	-2

Utilize this analysis for confidence in your betting strategies as the Wild Card weekend approaches.