The AFC crown is on the line Sunday between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, with the focus largely on the offenses. Can MVP hopeful Drake Maye shine against the strong Broncos defense? Additionally, how will backup QB Jarrett Stidham perform in his significant game time? What strategies will Broncos head coach Sean Payton employ to support Stidham and maintain offensive momentum?
Notably underappreciated, however, is the fact that the Patriots’ defense has ramped up its efforts significantly, delivering standout performances during the playoffs. While it’s acknowledged that they faced two weaker offenses, New England’s defense has demonstrated a remarkable turnaround from the regular season, edging them closer to the Super Bowl.
Comparing their postseason stats to the regular season, the Patriots’ defense has drastically improved: their Points Per Drive decreased from 1.79 in the regular season to 0.79 during the playoffs, trailing only the Seahawks in that regard. They’re forcing more punts and their defensive EPA per play has risen from 0.06 to 0.34.
Their usage of blitz has also dramatically increased, with a current blitz rate of 40.6%, significantly up from 27.6% during the regular season. Moreover, their blitzing Havoc Rate has soared to 37.5%, indicating that aggressive tactics tend to disrupt opposing offenses. This newfound aggression is steered by interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr.
The run game has also been a stronghold for New England; yielding only 3.1 yards per carry and boasting a 25.2% havoc rate against the run—second best after the Houston Texans. Through strategic run stunts and leveraging quick-bodied defensive linemen like Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, the Patriots show adaptability on defense.
The stats also reveal effective blitz methodologies, particularly against the under-pressure tactics used by the Broncos in Sunday’s game. Against backup QB Stidham, who’s expected to perform aggressively as noted by Payton, the Patriots’ blitz approach may work to their advantage, potentially guiding them back to a Super Bowl berth for the first time since 2019.
