It’s rare for a road team to be favored in an NFL playoff matchup, yet that’s the case as the New England Patriots visit the Denver Broncos for the AFC Championship this Sunday. Currently, the Patriots are favored by 4.5 points, which could set a record for the largest road favorite in AFC title game history.

In the history of the playoffs, teams favored by 4 or more points on the road in the postseason have struggled, with none covering the spread in the last 50 years.

Historical Context:

• In previous matchups, including the 2015 AFC title game, the Patriots have faced difficulties in Denver, holding an 0-4 playoff record there, including games with legendary quarterback Tom Brady. The Broncos’ last playoff contest was notable for a close finish against the Los Angeles Rams, where even a 10.5 point spread didn’t save them.

The trend highlights the burden of expectation facing the Patriots, as history suggests they face tough odds ahead.

Injuries may also sway the game: with Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix injured, the team will now turn to Jarrett Stidham, who hasn’t played in two years, adding another layer of intrigue to this pivotal matchup. Whether the Patriots can strike a new path in Denver remains to be seen, as they prepare to tackle both their opponents and the weight of history.