The Denver Broncos will aim to overcome the loss of quarterback Bo Nix due to an ankle injury in their matchup against the New England Patriots during the 2026 AFC Championship Game this Sunday. The victor of this clash will earn a spot in Super Bowl LX. The Patriots recently triumphed over Houston with a score of 28-16, while the Broncos narrowly defeated Buffalo 33-30 in overtime.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High, available on CBS and Paramount+. Currently, the Patriots are favored by 3.5 points, reflecting a two-point decrease from an initial spread of 5.5 points. The over/under for total points is set at 43.5 according to DraftKings Sportsbooks.
Why the Patriots Can Cover
Drake Maye, a potential MVP candidate, is leading the New England offense. During the regular season, he achieved a 72% completion rate with 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. In playoffs, he has shown strong performance as well.
Stefon Diggs has been a crucial target for Maye, catching 85 passes for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns in the regular season, alongside several explosive plays of at least 20 yards.
Why the Broncos Can Cover
With Bo Nix sidelined, backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will step in. Stidham’s last significant performance came in a game against the Raiders.
Courtland Sutton, a veteran wide receiver, has recorded 78 catches for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns over 18 games this season, making him an essential target for Stidham.
How to Make Patriots vs. Broncos Picks
The model forecast predicts a total score of around 40 points, favoring one side of the spread in nearly 60% of simulations.
