Champions League: Scenarios for Chelsea, Barcelona, Arsenal and Others

The first legs of the round of 16 have come to a conclusion, with several teams feeling optimistic as they head into the vital second legs scheduled for next week (watch the action on Paramount+). Atalanta faces the steepest challenge, trailing Bayern Munich by five goals after the first match, while four teams, including three from the Premier League, are facing three-goal deficits. Notably, only four teams have historically made comebacks from four-goal deficits in knockout stages.

Should any matches end level on aggregate, they would move to extra time of two 15-minute periods, followed by a penalty shootout if still tied. Let’s examine the upcoming fixtures and what each team requires to advance.

Knockout Stage Schedule

All times are Eastern, with matches available on Paramount+.

Tuesday, March 17

Sporting CP vs. Bodo/Glimt, 1:45 PM
Chelsea vs. PSG, 4:00 PM
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, 4:00 PM
Arsenal vs. Bayer Leverkusen, 4:00 PM

Wednesday, March 18

Barcelona vs. Newcastle United, 1:45 PM
Tottenham vs. Atletico Madrid, 4:00 PM
Liverpool vs. Galatasaray, 4:00 PM
Bayern Munich vs. Atalanta, 4:00 PM

Match Scenarios

Sporting CP vs. Bodo/Glimt

First leg score: Bodo/Glimt 3, Sporting CP 0
Sporting CP will advance if: They win by four or more goals.
Bodo/Glimt will advance if: They avoid a four-goal defeat.
Ties will go to extra time if: Sporting wins by three goals.

Chelsea vs. PSG

First leg score: PSG 5, Chelsea 2
Chelsea will advance if: They win by four or more goals.
PSG will advance if: They avoid a four-goal defeat.
Ties will go to extra time if: Chelsea wins by three goals.

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

First leg score: Real Madrid 3, Manchester City 0
Manchester City will advance if: They win by four or more goals.
Real Madrid will advance if: They avoid a four-goal defeat.
Ties will go to extra time if: Man City wins by three goals.

Arsenal vs. Bayer Leverkusen

First leg score: Arsenal 1, Bayer Leverkusen 1
The winner will advance to the quarterfinals.
A tie will go to extra time/penalties.

Barcelona vs. Newcastle United

First leg score: Barcelona 1, Newcastle United 1
The winner will advance to the quarterfinals.
A tie will go to extra time/penalties.

Tottenham vs. Atletico Madrid

First leg score: Atletico Madrid 5, Tottenham 2
Tottenham will advance if: They win by four or more goals.
Atletico Madrid will advance if: They avoid a four-goal defeat.
Ties will go to extra time if: Tottenham wins by three goals.

Liverpool vs. Galatasaray

First leg score: Galatasaray 1, Liverpool 0
Liverpool will advance if: They win by two or more goals.
Galatasaray will advance if: They avoid defeat.
Ties will go to extra time if: Liverpool wins by one goal.

Bayern Munich vs. Atalanta

First leg score: Bayern Munich 6, Atalanta 1
Bayern Munich will advance if: They avoid a six-goal defeat.
Atalanta will advance if: They win by six goals.
Ties will go to extra time if: Atalanta wins by five goals.