We’ve got another exciting Western Conference contest on Friday’s NBA schedule coming out of the All-Star Break as the Dallas Mavericks will host the New Orleans Pelicans. Dallas is 30-26 overall and 17-11 at home, while New Orleans is 13-42 overall and 4-23 on the road.

The Mavericks have won two of their three matchups this season, most recently defeating New Orleans, 137-136, on the road on Jan. 29. Anthony Davis (adductor) remains out for Dallas.

Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Mavs are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Pelicans vs. Mavericks odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 238.5 points.

Why the Pelicans can cover

The Pelicans are playing their first game out of the All-Star Break and most recently defeated the Kings, 140-133, in overtime. CJ McCollum had 43 points as the dominant scorer with Zion Williamson (conditioning) out, but the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft should be back for Friday to provide another scoring threat.

New Orleans is facing a Mavericks team battling key injuries with centers Daniel Gafford (knee) out and Dwight Powell (hip) doubtful.

Why the Mavericks can cover

The Mavericks entered the All-Star Break with four victories over their last five games, including winning their final two contests even without Davis. Kyrie Irving had 42 points in a 111-107 win over the Warriors on Feb. 12.

Despite all the injuries and off-the-court distractions from the Luka Doncic trade, Dallas is 6-1 against the spread (ATS).

How to make Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks

The model has simulated Pelicans vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, projecting 229 combined points, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations.