Should the Astros pursue a trade for Nolan Arenado?
The Astros have reportedly resumed talks with the Cardinals, who had apparently been halted earlier in the winter.
On Saturday, word surfaced that the Houston Astros have renewed interest in obtaining third baseman Nolan Arenado from the St. Louis Cardinals. The Astros attempted to acquire Arenado back in December, but he ended those efforts by invoking his no-trade clause. It’s unclear if Arenado has changed his tune about the Astros since, or if this will be a repeat scenario.
If negotiations succeed this time, the Astros are expected to place Arenado at third base. This move would likely push longtime second baseman Jose Altuve into left field, while current projected third baseman Isaac Paredes would shift to second base. Previous hypotheticals also suggested reevaluating positions for players like Alex Bergman. However, there are critical reasons for the Astros to hesitate.
1. Risk factors and financial implications
Arenado is approaching 34 and has had one of the weakest offensive seasons of his career. Metrics show concerning declines in performance, including reduced average exit velocity, low hard-hit percentages, and an overall descending trajectory in bat speed.
While Arenado’s defense remains strong, continued declines could lead to unfavorable production levels, especially considering his contract that still has three years and nearly $74 million left. The Cardinals may have to cover some costs to encourage a trade, nonetheless, Houston should evaluate the potential risks in investing such money.
2. Internal complications and future potential
Adding Arenado necessitates a domino effect within the roster, potentially diminishing playing time for valuable prospects currently seated on the roster. Players like Jacob Melton and Brice Matthews might find their path hindered, altering development probabilities dramatically.
This trade-off can pose challenges for a team that acknowledges the need to plan for both the present and future, which includes dealing with internal roster dynamics effectively to make room for Arenado.
3. Diverging strategies within the organization
The Astros’ recent transactional activities signal potential discord in organizational strategy — a team that aims to balance long-term prospects shouldn’t be pursuing aging talent like Arenado. The balance of focusing on talent, maximizing value, and maintaining versatility adds complexity to possible trade strategies, particularly as they seek both present performance and future growth to maintain competitive standards in the league. In conclusion, as the Astros consider a trade for Arenado, they’re wrestling with crucial decisions that can affect their trajectory in the league.
