Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks: Game Predictions and Odds

We’ve got another exciting Eastern Conference contest on Wednesday’s NBA schedule as the Miami Heat will host the Atlanta Hawks. Miami is 26-30 overall and 12-11 at home, while Atlanta is 27-31 and 14-16 on the road. The Hawks won each of their first two matchups this season in Atlanta, most recently defeating the Heat, 98-86, on Monday.

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The Heat are favored by 2.5 points in the latest Hawks vs. Heat odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 230.5 points. Before entering any Heat vs. Hawks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 19 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-106 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-10 (64%) on top-rated spread picks this season.

Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta is coming off its second victory over the Heat this season with a 98-86 win on Monday in Atlanta. The Hawks held Miami to 32.1% shooting from the field, including 17.5% on 3-pointers, and the Heat’s 86 points were tied for the second-fewest in a game for them this season. If Atlanta’s defensive efficiency can travel over to Miami, or the Heat simply continues to miss shots, Wednesday could have a similar result.

The Heat are 1-6 over their last seven games, struggling to score consistently during that stretch. They’ve scored 86 points or fewer in three of the seven contests. Even with Trae Young scoring just 11 points on 4 of 14 shooting, including 0 of 7 on 3-pointers, on Monday, the Hawks still easily won. Young (Achilles, probable) is averaging 24 ppg and leads the league with 11.5 assists per game. He had 14 assists against Miami on Monday as six different Hawks scored at least 10 points. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover
The Heat had a dismal 3-point shooting night they’d like to forget about on Monday, but they aren’t nearly as poor of a shooting team as they showed in that contest. The Heat are 16th in 3-point percentage (35.6%) and Tyler Herro, who shot 0 of 9 on 3-pointers, is shooting 37.2% from deep this season.

Herro scored 40 points against the Bucks the day before his struggles against Atlanta as he’s become a reliable, go-to scorer following the Jimmy Butler trade. The Heat have the No. 7 scoring defense, allowing 110.7 ppg this season, and the Hawks rank 27th in scoring defense (119 ppg) despite Monday’s success. The Heat are 5-1 over their last six home games against the Hawks and with a return to Miami on Wednesday, we could see a completely different outcome from Monday.

How to make Heat vs. Hawks picks
The model has simulated Hawks vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, projecting 223 combined points, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

Final Note
So who wins Heat vs. Hawks, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Hawks vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-106 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.