The Miami Heat will host the Washington Wizards for an Eastern Conference matchup on Monday night. Miami is 28-31 on the season and currently sits seventh in the East standings while Washington has the worst record in the NBA at 11-48. The Heat have won seven of their last 10 head-to-head matchups against their Southeast Division rivals and have also gone 5-3-2 against the spread during that span.

Bam Adebayo went 12-for-16 from the floor and finished with 30 points, seven rebounds, and four assists in a recent defeat, but the Heat struggled on the boards. Translation: Bam Adebayo scored 30 points in a recent game but the team lost the rebounding battle.

However, the Heat did still cover the spread as 6-point underdogs and they’ve now covered in each of their last three outings. They’ve also won six of their last seven home matchups with the Wizards.

Betting lines:

• Spread: Miami -8
• Over/Under: 218 points
• Moneyline: Miami -344, Washington +274

The Wizards, meanwhile, have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games despite dealing with injuries. This includes a recent win against the Charlotte Hornets, showcasing their resilience despite challenging situations.

Prediction: The model has simulated Washington vs. Miami 10,000 times and is leaning toward an over total, projecting 226 combined points.