Agent Insights: Valuation for Noteworthy Expiring Offensive Players, Featuring Sam Darnold

An agent cannot secure a deal for their client without initiating the discussion. The best way to establish a target price is by having multiple NFL teams competing for a player’s services. A soft market may necessitate a reduction in the asking price.

Agents and NFL teams likely have an understanding of the 2025 free agency landscape by now. Meetings commonly take place between agents of impending free agents and teams during the NFL Scouting Combine, which recently concluded. These talks are not permitted under NFL rules, yet teams seldom face consequences for tampering with players set to become free agents.

The exclusive negotiating rights for impending free agents will expire on March 10, allowing NFL teams to negotiate with agents for two days, concluding at 4 p.m. ET on March 12. Players without agents can negotiate directly with team executives. Contracts can only be signed once the new league year and free agency officially begin.

As an agent, I was tasked with determining asking prices for our clients from the outset of free agency, irrespective of whether I was the primary agent. Below are the estimated target prices—total contract value, guarantees, and fully guaranteed amounts—of ten intriguing offensive players approaching free agency.

Note: The suggested prices listed may be optimistic and do not reflect the actual contract values that may be signed.

Sam Darnold

Contract package: $127.5 million over 3 years ($42.5 million per year, potentially increasing to $135 million with incentives)
Overall guarantees: $90 million
Fully guaranteed at signing: $90 million

Darnold capitalized on an opportunity with the 10th overall draft pick J.J. McCarthy sidelined for the season due to injury. He signed a one-year deal aiming for a long-term position with Minnesota, posting impressive statistics despite a rough finish to the season.

Tee Higgins

Franchise tag: $26,179,200
Contract package: $125 million over 4 years ($31.5 million per year)
Overall guarantees: $85 million
Fully guaranteed at signing: $65 million

Higgins’ franchise tag signifies the Bengals’ intent to finalize a long-term deal before the next negotiating window open.

Trey Smith

Franchise tag: $23,402 million
Contract package: $95 million over 4 years ($23.75 million per year)
Overall guarantees: $60 million
Fully guaranteed at signing: $50 million

Smith’s swift rise in valuation illustrates the value attributed to key positions along the offensive line as league dynamics evolve.

Detailed evaluations like these shed light on the shifting dynamics of NFL free agency, highlighting various players’ situations and potential returns.