The Minnesota Timberwolves will visit the Miami Heat in an interconference matchup on Friday’s NBA schedule. Miami is 29-32 overall and 15-12 at home, while Minnesota is 35-29 overall and 18-15 on the road. The Wolves own a 10-3 record versus Miami over their last 13 matchups, although the Heat prevailed, 95-94, when they last met on Nov. 10. Minnesota is 29-34-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 2024-25 NBA season, while Miami is 27-32-2 versus the number.

Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. Minnesota is favored by 5.5 points in the latest Timberwolves vs. Heat odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 215.5 points. Before entering any Heat vs. Timberwolves picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

Why the Heat can cover

Last Wednesday, the Heat fell short 112-107 to the Cleveland Cavaliers, despite Bam Adebayo posting a double-double with 34 points and 12 boards. Miami played without Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. in that contest, but all three are questionable for Friday’s game.

Newcomer Kyle Anderson had an increased role and showcased his skills with seven points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists. Miami aims to leverage their defensive prowess, ranking seventh in points allowed per game. Additionally, the Heat has recorded five consecutive ATS victories.

Why the Timberwolves can cover

Conversely, the Timberwolves arrived at their game against the Charlotte Hornets with momentum from two wins. They triumphed over Charlotte 125-110, led by Jaden McDaniels, who also logged a double-double with 29 points and 10 rebounds. Minnesota’s defense ranks among the top seven in the league for points allowed, defensive ratings, and field goal percentages.

Prediction

The model has simulated Timberwolves vs. Heat 10,000 times, indicating a tendency towards the Over with a projected total of 219 points. Furthermore, it has produced a point-spread pick that has succeeded in over 60% of the simulations.