The No. 16 Memphis Tigers (25-5, 15-2 AAC) are looking to claim the regular-season conference title against the South Florida Bulls (13-17, 6-11) this Friday night. Memphis enters the game riding a four-game winning streak, and they have already secured a share of the AAC title following a 75-70 victory over UTSA on Tuesday. In contrast, South Florida has struggled, losing six of their last seven games, including a recent defeat to Florida Atlantic.

The game is set to tip off at 9 PM at FedExForum, with Memphis being favored by 12.5 points, while the over/under is established at 152.5 points, according to SportsLine consensus.

Why Memphis can cover

Memphis has clinched at least a share of the AAC regular-season title, and Friday’s game offers a chance for an outright championship. Their previous encounter against South Florida resulted in an easy 80-65 win for the Tigers, featuring a strong performance by Dain Dainja, who scored 20 points in that game.

The team also boasts PJ Haggerty as their leading scorer (21.3 points per game), supported by several other players averaging double figures. To secure a high seed in the NCAA tournament and avoid any unnecessary losses, Memphis will be fully focused on the Bulls.

Why South Florida can cover

Despite South Florida’s recent losses, they have kept games close, with each of their last four defeats coming by seven points or fewer. Jimmie Williams stepped up in a recent back-and-forth game against Florida Atlantic, showcasing depth with multiple players contributing.

The Bulls have a historical advantage against Memphis, having covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 matchups, including an impressive streak of seven road games.

How to make Memphis vs. South Florida picks

The model has analyzed the match-up extensively and simulated it 10,000 times while showing a tendency towards the under, alongside a valuable point spread selection that holds a 60% success rate in simulations. You can find the full predictions and insights on SportsLine.