Most MVP voters would claim that a single game shouldn’t overly influence their decisions. There are 82 games in a season to consider, making a single game just over 1% of a team’s season and approximately 2-3% of an individual’s overall performance. However, when faced with head-to-head matchups between MVP candidates, the stakes are notably higher.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander faced Nikola Jokic this past Sunday, scoring 40 points and leading the Thunder to a commanding 127-103 win against the Nuggets. History shows that MVP voters are likely to remember such crucial matchups, particularly in a long race.

Between 2011 and 2024, MVP winners have consistently performed well against the runner-up’s teams, winning 25 out of 37 matchups, which reveals the increasing significance of these encounters. As the MVP race heats up, Gilgeous-Alexander’s upcoming matchups with Jokic will be critical in determining the eventual winner.