The No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (29-3) will likely be without their superstar when they face the No. 5 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (22-12) in the 2025 ACC Tournament semifinals on Friday night. Cooper Flagg injured his left ankle in a quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech, landing on an opponent’s foot in the first half. Flagg did not return to the game and head coach Jon Scheyer said he is a “long shot” to play on Friday. North Carolina is trying to improve its at-large resume while also aiming for an automatic bid after winning its first two games this week.

Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. on Friday at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. Duke is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Duke vs. North Carolina odds, while the over/under is 152.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any North Carolina vs. Duke picks, you’ll want to see the college basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters conference championship week on a 225-165 betting roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. Anyone following at sports books and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on North Carolina-Duke. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines for the game:

• Duke vs. North Carolina spread: Duke -6.5
• Duke vs. North Carolina over/under: 152.5 points
• Duke vs. North Carolina money line: Duke: -305, North Carolina: +245

Why Duke can cover

Duke trailed by 14 points in the first half against Georgia Tech, but it rallied despite losing Flagg. The Blue Devils defeated North Carolina by double digits twice during the regular season, including an 82-69 comeback road win. Freshman Kon Knueppel picked up the slack when Flagg went down, scoring a season-high 28 points against the Yellow Jackets.

The Blue Devils will need another big outing from him on Friday, especially since reserve forward Maliq Brown will be out due to a left shoulder injury. Knueppel averages 14.2 points per game, while junior guard Tyrese Proctor is adding 11.8 points. Duke has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games and it has covered in four of its last six games against North Carolina.

Why North Carolina can cover

North Carolina entered the ACC Tournament in desperation mode and has a perfect opportunity to make a case to the selection committee on Friday night. The Tar Heels have already bolstered their at-large resume with wins over No. 12 seed Notre Dame and No. 4 seed Wake Forest earlier this week. They covered the spread in both victories, as RJ Davis scored 23 points in the win over the Demon Deacons on Thursday.

Davis was named the ACC Player of the Year last year, and his experience could be critical to this matchup. He has scored at least 20 points in four of his last eight games, while junior forward Ven-Allen Lubin has posted three double-doubles in his last four outings. North Carolina has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games and desperately needs a win on Friday night.

How to make Duke vs. North Carolina picks

The model has simulated North Carolina vs. Duke 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it has also generated a point-spread pick that indicates one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. North Carolina, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the North Carolina vs. Duke spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 225-165 roll on top-rated college basketball picks and find out.