Wisconsin Among the Most Vulnerable No. 3 Seed in Upset Watch
An analysis of potential upsets involving No. 14 seeds against No. 3 seeds in the men's NCAA tournament reveals that Wisconsin is in a precarious position this year.
In recent NCAA tournaments, a No. 14 seed has defeated a No. 3 seed twice. This year, teams should keep a close eye on potential upsets in the matchups involving these seeds.
If you want to look like a genius in your bracket pool and predict a huge upset, selecting a 14 seed over a three seed is likely your best option. While it’s not common, a 14 seed has secured a first-round victory 23 times in 156 opportunities—much more favorable odds compared to a 16 seed (which has won only twice) or a 15 seed advancing beyond the first round (11 times).
Interestingly, 14 seeds pulling off upsets is becoming more frequent, with five instances occurring in the last nine tournaments. For instance, Horizon League champion Oakland defeated the third-seeded Kentucky last year, sending them packing with an 80-76 score.
The statistics since the tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985 reveal 20 victories by 14 seeds over No. 3 seeds across 39 tournaments. This year, let’s break down the 3-14 matchups and identify the strongest contenders for an upset.
