Preparing for the NCAA Tournament feels overwhelming. In just moments on Selection Sunday, 68 teams are announced, leading to an inundation of preview content.

You can find breakdowns of all the teams, expert picks, upset trends, and potential Cinderella stories. Even so, despite the thorough analysis, it’s easy to get it wrong; after all, this is ‘madness’ for a reason.

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At some point, you must finalize your picks before the games begin. While first-round matches can be perplexing, they often determine how your bracket performs overall.

Focusing on specific matchups can provide clarity. Historically, first-round game winners often come from teams that performed well during the regular season, making it essential to analyze their stats and performances carefully.

Let’s begin the breakdown of the picks for the tournament:

First Round

South Region

• No. 1 Auburn over No. 16 Alabama State: The favorites consistently dominate early rounds.
• No. 9 Creighton over No. 8 Louisville: Creighton brings a strong gameplay led by Kalkbrenner.
• No. 5 Michigan over No. 12 UC San Diego: Michigan’s height will be too much for UCSD.
• No. 13 Yale over No. 4 Texas A&M: Yale hits their deep shots, again surprising fans.
• No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 11 North Carolina: Veteran presence proves vital.
• No. 3 Iowa State over No. 14 Lipscomb: A steady performance is expected from Iowa.
• No. 7 Marquette over No. 10 New Mexico: Guard play will dominate this matchup.
• No. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 Bryant: Expect a high-scoring offensive performance.

East Region

• No. 1 Duke over No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s: Similar to the South, top seeds generally prevail in early games.
• No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Mississippi State: Baylor’s guard strength shines through.
• No. 5 Oregon over No. 12 Liberty: The Ducks have a successful track record in early rounds.
• No. 4 Arizona over No. 13 Akron: Overall team depth gives the edge to Arizona.
• No. 11 VCU over No. 6 BYU: VCU’s seasoned play puts them ahead.
• No. 3 Wisconsin over No. 11 VCU: With recent successful showings, they look for a repeat.
• No. 2 Alabama over No. 7 Saint Mary’s: High talent matchup goes Alabama’s way.

Midwest Region

• No. 1 Houston over No. 8 Gonzaga: Houston’s superior offensive lineup should clinch this matchup.
• No. 5 Clemson over No. 4 Purdue: With a solid gameplan in place, Clemson sets out to advance.
• No. 3 Kentucky over No. 11 Xavier: With offensive depth, Kentucky prevails.
• No. 2 Tennessee over No. 7 UCLA: They’re too disciplined for a slip-up.

West Region

• No. 1 Florida over No. 8 UConn: Florida delivers a tight game but prevails.
• No. 4 Maryland over No. 12 Colorado State: Maryland’s size can overpower Colorado.
• No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 11 Drake: Texas Tech’s offensive variety takes over.
• No. 2 St. John’s over No. 10 Arkansas: Solid defense paves way for victory.

Championship

• No. 1 Florida over No. 1 Houston: Florida’s well-rounded team takes home the championship.