The ninth-seeded Baylor Bears will battle the eighth-seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs in an East Regional first-round matchup on Friday. Baylor comes off a 76-74 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, while Mississippi State faces a fresh challenge after dropping an 85-73 decision to Missouri in the second round of the SEC Tournament. The Bears (19-14) tied for seventh in the Big 12 at 10-10 and are making their 17th NCAA Tournament appearance, having won the national title in 2021. The Bulldogs (21-12) tied for ninth in the SEC at 8-10 and are making their 14th NCAA Tournament appearance.

Tip-off from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., is set for 12:15 PM ET. Mississippi State is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Baylor vs. Mississippi State odds from SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 144.5.

Before placing any bets on the game, check out the predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. This model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times and enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023.

Why Mississippi State can cover

Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard is a standout contributor for the Bulldogs, selected to the All-SEC second team with a remarkable 1,214 career points — the most by an underclassman in program history. He averages 18.7 points per game, tied for third in the conference, and has made a remarkable 104 three-pointers this season. He has hit at least one three-pointer in 46 consecutive games. In a prior matchup against Alabama on January 29, he scored a career-high 38 points.

Junior forward KeShawn Murphy also plays a crucial role, averaging 11.8 points and 7.5 rebounds coming off the bench.

Why Baylor can cover

Senior forward Norchad Omier is coming off a stellar 29-point, 15-rebound performance in the Big 12 quarterfinals against Texas Tech. He has a double-double in his last nine games, averaging 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game for the season.

V.J. Edgecombe, a star guard for Baylor, was named the Big 12 Freshman of the Year and averages 15 points per game, contributing significantly to the team’s success.

Making predictions for Baylor vs. Mississippi State

The model projects a total of 148 combined points for this matchup and it has issued an against-the-spread pick which appears promising. For further details on the picks, please visit SportsLine.