The 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers will look to challenge the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in an East Regional first-round matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Friday afternoon. Mount St. Mary’s defeated American 83-72 in its First Four matchup on Wednesday, while the Blue Devils are coming off a 73-62 win over Louisville in the ACC championship game. The Mountaineers (23-12), who were 12-8 in the MAAC, are making their seventh NCAA Tournament appearance. The Blue Devils (31-3), who won the ACC regular-season title at 19-1, are making their 47th NCAA Tournament appearance.

Tipoff from Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., is set for 2:50 p.m. ET. This will be the first meeting between the schools. Duke is a 32.5-point favorite in the latest Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 140.5. Before making any Duke vs. Mount St. Mary’s picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.

Why Duke can cover

The Blue Devils are led by freshman forward Cooper Flagg, who is expected to play despite sustaining an ankle injury in the ACC Tournament. He is the 2024-25 ACC Player of the Year, and was named ACC Rookie of the Year.

Why Mount St. Mary’s can cover

Junior forward Dola Adebayo poured in 22 points and grabbed four rebounds to power the Mountaineers past American.

How to make Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 146 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time.