With No. 12 Kentucky sitting at 15-5 (4-3 SEC) and coming off a win at No. 8 Tennessee as February rolled in, there was no doubt. Kentucky had emerged victorious in the breakup with John Calipari, and it wasn’t particularly close.

Now, after No. 10 seed Arkansas upset No. 7 seed St. John’s 75-66 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, the scenario looks different. With Calipari reaching his first Sweet 16 trip since 2019, the debate is reignited.

If No. 3 seed Kentucky fails to beat No. 6 seed Illinois on Sunday, Calipari and Arkansas will undoubtedly be recognized as the winners in his messy separation from the Wildcats.

Such an outcome was unfathomable less than two months back, especially after Calipari’s Razorbacks dominated the Wildcats in Rupp Arena for an 89-79 win on February 1.

The Wildcats revitalized their program with familiar face Mark Pope, while Calipari appeared destined for a disappointing season with a struggling Razorbacks side. However, that dramatic win at Rupp Arena altered everything and highlighted the depth of challenges Kentucky would face.

“We were thrown in a coffin but forgot the nails. We pushed it open and came out,” stated Calipari regarding the turnaround our team made.

Quotes:

“They threw us in a coffin. They just forgot the nails. We pushed it open and we come out.”
(Calipari on Arkansas’ journey from 0-5 in the SEC to the Sweet 16)

Regardless of the outcome in the tournament for Kentucky, coach Pope has injected newfound hope into the program. He has led the team to eight victories over top-15 opponents despite significant injury challenges to players like Jaxson Robinson, Lamont Butler, Andrew Carr, and Kerr Kriisa.

If the Wildcats cannot prevail against Illinois, the struggle with injuries will be seen as a key factor. Robinson has been ruled out for the season, while Butler continues to battle a persistent shoulder injury. Kriisa has played limited games due to various health issues, and Carr has experienced recurring back problems that required strategic management by Coach Pope.

Ultimately, the talent of this Kentucky group appears diminished compared to previous squads, yet Pope’s guidance has taken them further in the NCAA Tournament than Calipari did with two lottery picks in 2024.

The truth remains that both teams, Kentucky and Calipari, are better positioned post-breakup. However, if Kentucky cannot secure a victory, this split will definitively favor Calipari.