The fourth-seeded Maryland Terrapins battle the top-seeded Florida Gators in their West Region Sweet 16 matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Maryland is coming off a heart-stopping 72-71 win over Colorado State, while Florida went down to the wire to defeat two-time defending national champion UConn 77-75 on Sunday. The Terrapins (27-8), who are 46-29 in 31 NCAA Tournament appearances, are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016. The Gators (32-4), who are 50-22 in 25 tournament appearances, are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017.

Tipoff from Chase Center in San Francisco is set for 7:39 p.m. ET. The all-time series is tied 2-2 with Maryland posting a 70-68 in the last meeting on Dec. 12, 2021, in Brooklyn, N.Y. Florida is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Maryland vs. Florida odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 156.5. Before making any Florida vs. Maryland picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-168 roll (+1815) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Why Florida can cover

Senior guard Walter Clayton Jr. has been on a tear of late, reaching 22 or more points in each of the last four games. In Sunday’s win over UConn, he finished with 23 points and three rebounds to rally the Gators back from a second-half deficit. He had 23 points, five rebounds, and two assists in the 95-69 win over Norfolk State in the first round. In 35 games, all starts, he is averaging 17.9 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds in 32.4 minutes.

Also powering the Florida attack is senior guard Alijah Martin. The transfer from Florida Atlantic has been instrumental in the Gators’ tournament success, pouring in 18 points, grabbing four rebounds, and dishing out three assists in Sunday’s win over UConn.

Why Maryland can cover

Freshman center Derik Queen, whose buzzer-beater sent the Terrapins to the Sweet 16, helps power the offense. In 35 games, all starts, he is averaging 16.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 blocks, and 1.1 steals in 30.3 minutes. He poured in 17 points with six rebounds and two blocks in Sunday’s win over Colorado State.

Junior guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie has reached double-digit scoring in each of the past five games. In an 81-80 Big Ten Tournament semifinal loss to Michigan, he registered a near double-double with 10 points, nine assists, and two rebounds.

How to make Maryland vs. Florida picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 152 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 60% of simulations.