2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16: Predictions for Arkansas vs. Texas Tech

SportsLine college basketball expert Zack Cimini reveals his Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks picks for the Sweet 16 of March Madness 2025.

Cinderella stories have become synonymous with March Madness in recent years, but for just the second time over the last five NCAA Tournaments, only one double-digit seed advanced to the Sweet 16. That team is the No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks (22-13) and they’ll take on the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-8) on Thursday in the Sweet 16. John Calipari has guided Arkansas to a pair of upset victories, knocking off No. 7 Kansas and then No. 2 St. John’s. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is playing in its seventh Sweet 16 and continues its pursuit of its second Final Four appearance in program history. Senior guard Chance McMillian has missed the last three games for Texas Tech with an upper-body injury and is a game-time decision for Thursday’s contest.

Tipoff for this Sweet 16 matchup is set for 10:09 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Texas Tech is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Texas Tech vs. Arkansas odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 147.5, up three from the opening line. The Red Raiders are -243 money-line favorites. Before making any Texas Tech vs. Arkansas picks, be sure to check out the 2025 March Madness predictions from red-hot college basketball expert Zack Cimini.

Why Arkansas can cover

The Razorbacks have struggled from deep this NCAA Tournament (8 of 46, 17.4%), but their stout defense has propelled them to a run to the Sweet 16. Arkansas held St. John’s to 28% from the field, including 2 of 22 (9.1%) on 3-pointers, in the second round of a 75-66 victory. Arkansas was the underdog in both games and ever since starting 0-5 in SEC play, many thought Calipari’s first year at Arkansas would be a disappointment.

But the Razorbacks started playing their best basketball at the right time. Arkansas won four of its final five SEC games before going 1-1 in the SEC Tournament to earn an at-large bid. The Razorbacks received an additional boost for the NCAA Tournament when freshman Boogie Fland, who was ranked No. 20 in the Class of 2024 by 247 Sports, returned from a thumb injury that kept him out since Jan. 18. Fland has provided depth off the bench to a lineup where all five starters had double-digit points in at least one NCAA Tournament game. See which team to pick here.

Why Texas Tech can cover

Although much is made about the fact the SEC had 14 teams make the NCAA Tournament and therefore had a grueling conference schedule, the Big 12 has four teams in the Sweet 16, so Texas Tech hasn’t had an easy schedule this year either. The Red Raiders went 15-5 in the Big 12 this season, including being one of only four teams in the nation to defeat Houston. Sophomore forward JT Toppin, the Big 12 Player of the Year, shot 11 of 13 for 25 points with 12 rebounds against Drake in the second round after averaging 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game this season.

How to make Arkansas vs. Texas Tech picks

Cimini is leaning Under on the total, but he’s also identified a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread in this Sweet 16 matchup. You can only get Cimini’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas Tech vs. Arkansas, and which side of the spread should you be jumping all over? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Arkansas vs. Texas Tech spread to jump on, all from a red-hot college basketball expert that is on a 5-0 (+500) run over his last five Texas Tech NCAA picks, and find out.