Expert Analysis on Home Run Picks for April 15
As the 2025 MLB season approaches the end of its third week, a total of 23 players have already blasted five or more home runs. Notable mentions include stars like Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Kyle Schwarber, and Fernando Tatis Jr., alongside less expected names such as Tommy Edman and Wilmer Flores.
Jazz Chisholm, who hit 19 homers in his first five MLB years, has particularly excelled since joining the New York Yankees, achieving 17 home runs in just 239 at-bats this past summer. Currently, he’s listed at +400 at BetMGM Sportsbook to go deep on Tuesday, making him a smart choice for your MLB HR bets.
With all 30 teams active in the Tuesday schedule, the selections for home run wagers are plentiful. The SportsLine model is simplifying this by offering helpful analyses for these home run bets. The model runs simulations of every game 10,000 times and has shown a 34-19 record on its top MLB picks.
Top Home Run Picks
Tyler Soderstrom (+370)
Having solidified his role in the majors this season, Soderstrom is tied for leading home runs with six so far. Despite not hitting any homers in his last five games, his metrics indicate positive trends: he ranks in the 86th percentile or better in exit velocity, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage.
“He could be due for a home run, particularly with today’s favorable matchup.”
Adolis Garcia (+450)
Garcia has hit 122 home runs over the previous four seasons. Although April has been tough for him, statistical indicators suggest he’s primed for a resurgence soon. Historically facing Yusei Kikuchi, he has a 3-for-9 track record, including two home runs. SportsLine places his home run line at +348 at FanDuel.
Trevor Story HR (+600)
FanDuel offers the best line for Story at +400 for his HR. After rocky starts to his career in Boston, he’s posting .304 batting average and three home runs already this season. Tonight’s matchup at a hitter-friendly stadium presents a significant opportunity for him.
“The Rays’ temporary ballpark is incredibly favorable for home runs; the HRI for tonight’s game is an 8 out of 10,” states Fetner, indicating the likelihood of Story contributing to the home run totals today.
Utilize these insights to place your MLB bets wisely this April 15!
