Athletics first baseman Tyler Soderstrom is currently the MLB home run leader after smashing two home runs against the White Sox, bringing his season total to eight. This remarkable power was once recognized when he was a consensus top-60 MLB prospect, and at 23 years old, he’s now truly showcasing his potential.
However, he faces a challenge in the chilly Chicago weather (44 degrees) on Wednesday night, as the wind blows in at Rate Field. The latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook place Soderstrom at +520 to hit another home run. Should he be included in your MLB HR picks?
Every MLB team plays on Wednesday, presenting numerous options for home run bets. Yankees superstar Aaron Judge (+210) holds the shortest odds, despite not hitting a home run since April 4. With MLB home run props available for nearly every player in every game, SportsLine’s established model can help you spot value for your MLB home run parlays.
The model simulations involve running each game 10,000 times and has an impressive record of 34-19 on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line since 2023. Recently, it went 2-for-3 on home run props on Monday, accurately predicting Shohei Ohtani at +290 and Bobby Witt at +340, and then it hit on Soderstrom at +370 for Tuesday’s game.
The SportsLine Projection Model has successfully picked a home run prop in six out of the last eight days, resulting in a gain of 15.2 units during that time. It has revealed projections for several of the most-bet MLB home run prop bets on Wednesday, which could be parlayed for +15025 odds, providing a potential payout of $756.25 on a $5 wager at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Byron Buxton (+420)
Buxton played over 102 games in just one out of his 11 MLB seasons, but when healthy, his power numbers are impressive. He has hit 95 home runs in just 379 games over the last five seasons, aligning with a pace of 41 home runs in a full 162-game season. Despite a slow start this season, Buxton managed a multi-hit game on Tuesday and has hit a home run in two of his last five games.
“Mets pitcher Justin Hagenman has given up four home runs in just 10.1 innings pitched in the minors this year,” says SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner. “Although he is a right-handed pitcher, Buxton’s career slugging percentage is slightly better against righties than lefties. We set the HR line at +340 for Buxton, thus offering substantial value with BetMGM offering +420.”
Corey Seager (+450)
Seager has consistently hit 30 or more home runs in all three of his seasons with the Rangers. After hitting two homers last week against the Cubs, he appears to be in excellent form, going 5-for-11 in the last three games. In two encounters against Saturday’s expected starter, Jose Soriano, he is 1-for-2 with a home run.
“Seager is heating up with an OPS over 1.000 and three home runs in the last eight matches,” Fetner outlines. “For Seager to hit a home run today, we set the line at +290, making BetMGM’s +450 odds an attractive option.”
Matt Mervis (+525)
Mervis, after brief appearances with the Cubs in previous seasons, has now secured a regular position with the Marlins this season, just days before his 27th birthday. He has homered in three of his last four games, tallying five home runs this season already. Mervis notable power includes 52 home runs in 242 Triple-A games, making it his hallmark skill.
“Brandon Pfaadt allowed three home runs in his only road start this year and has given up 29 home runs in 26 career road starts. He has also permitted left-handed batters an .830 OPS advantage,” Fetner explains. Hence, Mervis is set to be an advantageous pick once again, with favorable odds presented at BetMGM.
More MLB Picks for Wednesday
You have observed the model’s home run prop picks for the notable players on Wednesday. Obtain MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine. You may also check today’s top MLB picks, curated by Matt Severance, who holds an impressive record of 50-25 in baseball predictions. Visit SportsLine to access his top plays for the day, specifically from the expert boasting a 50-25 streak.
Looking for additional MLB player prop predictions? SportsLine’s Prop Bet Guy Doug is 17-11 in his last 28 MLB props, and you can view all his latest selections now.
