Several horses enter the 2025 Kentucky Derby with significant momentum from their recent victories, notably the 3-1 favorite Journalism, along with mid-tier options like Rodriguez (12-1) and Burnham Square (12-1). A potential contender is Sovereignty, currently valued at 5-1 after a commendable performance in the Florida Derby last month.

Factors such as momentum are critical when evaluating betting trends for the Derby. Historical context reveals that winning the last race prior to the Kentucky Derby is not an absolute requirement for success. Here’s a quick glimpse at the results of the past few winners leading up to the race:

• 2024: Mystik Dan (3rd, Arkansas Derby)
• 2023: Mage (2nd, Florida Derby)
• 2022: Rich Strike (3rd, Jeff Ruby Steaks)
• 2021: Mandaloun (6th, Louisiana Derby)
• 2019: Country House (3rd, Arkansas Derby)

If this trend holds, several notable entries could be dismissed from viable betting selections, including Journalism, Sandman, and Burnham Square, among others. Expert Jody Demling has suggested a range of bets, totaling $162 across various betting categories, suitable for those utilizing platforms such as TwinSpires or 1/ST BET.

Demling has established himself as a notable figure in the horse racing community, boasting a successful track record of predicting winners and significant outcomes, including nabbing the Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. His predictions are often followed closely by fans hoping to increase their knowledge and betting success in these high-stakes events.

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Top Surprising Picks for the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Interestingly, Demling is steering away from favoring Journalism (3-1) in his latest analysis, recognizing its merit as a front-runner. Additionally, Demling expresses concerns regarding Sandman’s youthful inexperience, particularly with the No. 17 post position’s historical challenges in producing Derby champions.

Moreover, he is asserting confidence in double-digit longshots, including a notable 30-1 pick that he’s incorporating into his superfecta selections.

For further insights into which horses Demling believes hold the best potential for victory, access his comprehensive analysis directly on SportsLine.