Free MLB Home Run Predictions for May 1
The MLB schedule for Thursday features seven games starting at or before 2:35 p.m. ET and four more that kick off after 6:30 p.m. ET. Notably, the Philadelphia Phillies will be playing, with their prominent player Kyle Schwarber just one homer behind the league leaders. After homering in consecutive games against Washington, Schwarber now has nine home runs this season, and BetMGM lists his odds at +240 for another home run.
Given Schwarber’s odds are lower than any other player across sportsbooks, the question remains: should he be part of your MLB betting strategy? SportsLine’s computer model offers invaluable insights that can enhance your home run betting choices.
The model simulates each game 10,000 times and has a 17-11 success rate on top-rated MLB picks this season. It recently succeeded with all three home run picks made last Wednesday, resulting in a significant +9360 parlay. Over the last 24 days, it has been accurate with home run props 13 times and gained 28.6 units during this timeframe.
Here are the suggested MLB home run prop bets for Thursday:
James Wood, Nationals (+450)
Wood has emerged as an impressive player, matching Schwarber with nine home runs. He recently hit a homer against the Mets. With a remarkable .950 OPS against right-handed pitchers, now facing Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, who had allowed 24 home runs in 83.2 innings last season, the odds appear favorable.
Quote from Jacob Fetner: “I believe we’re seeing a good price on Wood, especially as Walker might regress in allowed home runs.”
Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (+400)
While Jose Ramirez is recognized as the primary home run hitter for the Guardians, Manzardo surpasses him this season with 11 home runs. After recently homering against Minnesota, he has established a strong record in day games with six homers this season.
Quote from Jacob Fetner: “In day games, Manzardo shines, showcasing a 1.195 OPS, making him a solid bet.”
Christian Yelich, Brewers (+540)
Having sustained a successful April with five home runs, Yelich looks to improve after some games without getting a hit. The model presents a favorable matchup against Sean Burke, noting Yelich’s historical performance against right-handed pitchers.
Quote from Jacob Fetner: “Yelich has an impressive .888 OPS against right-hand pitchers, with all his home runs scored against them this season.”
For More MLB Pick Insights
To see the model’s projections for all MLB player props on Thursday, visit SportsLine. Additionally, if you’re seeking more predictions, Matt Severance has been very successful in his baseball picks and has several valuable insights to share.
