Despite being among the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, Baeza wasn’t officially included in the race until a last-minute scratch on Friday. Now that he has a place in the lineup, the lightly raced colt’s chances of winning are promising.
Baeza (12-1)
- Trainer: John Shirreffs
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Last race: Finished second in the Santa Anita Derby by three-quarters of a length
- Career record: 4 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds
- Career earnings: $148,500
- Best Beyer Speed Figure: 101 (2025 Santa Anita Derby)
- Sire: McKinzie
Further into the Derby profile of Baeza, it’s crucial to examine his past performances and analyze how the post position may affect his race outcome.
Baeza’s training under John Shirreffs, known for coaching Hall of Famer Zenyatta, has propelled him to be a serious contender despite his late start in racing, making his debut in December and achieving his first win in February.
In the recent Santa Anita Derby, Baeza ran wide on the first turn and took on a fast pace but narrowly lost to Journalism, earning a strong Beyer score that reflects his performance potential. His lineage suggests that he may be poised for classic race victories, with a history of winning family members like his half-brother Mage.
As he competes in the 151st Kentucky Derby this Saturday, several questions remain about his performance, and the mid-pack running style could play a critical role amidst a field predominantly featuring either speedy horses or closers.
Baeza will start from post position No. 20, not the most favorable but certainly better than being out of the race. The expectation is that jockey Flavien Prat will be strategic about ground-saving during the race.
