Expert Insights on 2025 Kentucky Derby: Odds, Picks, and Predictions
In-depth analysis and expert picks for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, focusing on top horses like Journalism, Sandman, and Sovereignty.
Horses with single-digit odds have historically won each Kentucky Derby from 2013 to 2018, yet recent trends are favoring longshots as the 2025 Derby approaches, set to start at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. In fact, five of the past winners were significant underdogs, with horses like Country House at 30-1 and Rich Strike at 80-1 claiming victory.
For this year’s race, the leading contenders are Journalism at 3-1, Sovereignty at 5-1, and Sandman at 6-1. Be sure to check out the horse racing predictions and 2025 Kentucky Derby futures.
Jody Demling, a prominent figure in horse racing, has accurately predicted the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years and has significant success with Preakness and Belmont Stakes as well. He is sharing detailed insights on which horses to favor and which to avoid during the Derby.
Expert Predictions
Demling notes a surprising move away from Sandman, despite his impressive form in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and a favorable betting trend. In contrast, he is putting significant faith in Sovereignty, a strong baton-holder in the Florida Derby, managing two wins and two second-places in just five races.
For the favorite, Journalism, Demling emphasizes his successful track record, highlighted by three consecutive wins but mentions potential challenges due to the larger field size at Churchill Downs.
Understanding the Odds
The odds and positions for the 2025 Kentucky Derby are as follows:
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | Scratched |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | Scratched |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Baeza | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
Conclusion
To discover which horse may take the title at the 2025 Kentucky Derby, as well as additional insights and industry-standard predictions, check Demling’s expert advice.
