Throughout NBA history, there have been 290 instances of a team going down 3-1 in a playoff series, and only 13 times has that team come back to win. The Houston Rockets put themselves in position to become the 14th with a blowout Game 6 win over the Warriors on Friday, setting up the two best words in sports: Game Seven.

On the flip side, the Warriors know all too well about blowing a 3-1 lead, being one of the 13 teams to do so. Reminders of the 2016 Finals loom large, especially in Golden State. But this storyline will be front and center over these next two days, as the Warriors are on the brink of facing that dreaded scenario again.

Despite their three wins, the Warriors have felt like they are constantly playing from behind this series. Houston’s defense has been suffocating, and they’ve been punished on the offensive boards, causing the Warriors’ efforts to seem futile amid the Rockets’ recent onslaught.

Houston’s two recent games, where they enjoyed a 23-point differential, don’t quite capture the level of dominance they’ve exhibited since leading the series 3-1. This game’s narrative includes Houston’s newfound defensive prowess, especially with Steven Adams, who has significantly fortified their rim defense. The Rockets’ offense has also surprised many, averaging 123 points across the last couple of games.

This offensive power shouldn’t surprise anyone; Houston was close to a top-10 offense this past season. Critics might point out their lack of a conventional go-to scorer, but they boast multiple players capable of stepping up at any moment, maintaining their scoring consistently.

Jalen Green clinched Game 2 with 38 points, while Alperen Sengun contributed 31 points in Game 4 and 21 points along with 14 rebounds and six assists in Game 6. Dillon Brooks scored 24 in Game 5, and Fred VanVleet, who exploded for 29 points with six three-pointers, has been on fire, accounting for 80 points and 18 three-pointers in the series.

FOUR-POINT PLAY FROM VANVLEET! 😳 via @NBA pic.twitter.com/iA4HG6ZmaV

“I thought the key play was the four-point play to start the [fourth] quarter,” said Steve Kerr. “That’s on us as a staff. We’ve got to make sure [our guys are] matched up. They just threw it, we didn’t guard VanVleet when he threw it up the floor, knocks it down, gets the free throw. It felt like a game-changing play.”

The Rockets rely heavily on a balanced offense, complicating defenses as they do not have an obvious go-to player. “One thing about this team is we’ve prided ourselves on our balance all season and having different guys that can step up and make shots when it’s in rhythm,” noted VanVleet.

Defensively, the Rockets have an advantage all round. They are younger, faster, and bigger than the Warriors who must bank on their celebrated pedigree. However, recent trends indicate their advantages are dwindling as Houston’s confidence grows.l

The Warriors have historically relied on shooting and defense to secure their edge, yet this series has seen Houston displaying greater efficiency in three-point shooting. They are even surpassing Golden State in shooting percentage across the series. With key players struggling, the Warriors’ hopes mostly pivot on Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, who find themselves battling against a superior team dynamic.

As this series unfolds, both teams face immense pressure. The Warriors will need to channel their experience to stave off a historic collapse. “If you told us we would have a Game 7 in February, we’d take that all day long,” Curry mentioned. “How we got here, not happy about it. But we do have another opportunity.”