The 2025 Kentucky Derby’s forecast signals significant rain leading up to the race, which is set for 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. Churchill Downs has experienced rainfall throughout the day, likely affecting track conditions to be sloppy.

While the morning-line favorite, Journalism, sits at 3-1, all five of his past races were on dry dirt. Sovereignty and Sandman follow closely at 5-1 and 6-1 respectively, yet their performance in muddy conditions remains uncertain.

For your betting strategy this year, consider horses that excel in sloppy conditions:

American Promise (30-1)

• American Promise has had two board finishes without a win until his maiden victory on a muddy track in December. He also recently won the 2025 Virginia Derby.

Publisher (20-1)

• As the first maiden to run in the Derby since 1937, Publisher has shown consistent performance, including a second-place finish on a muddy track at Oaklawn.

Neoequos (30-1)

• Debuting on a wet track, he returned stronger to win on a sloppy surface at Gulfstream.

Coal Battle (30-1)

• After winning races on muddy tracks, Coal Battle’s streak ended with a third-place finish against tough competition, setting him up for redemption in the Derby.

Use insights from Jody Demling and others from SportsLine, who have successfully predicted the Derby results in the past. You can also check the latest odds via links to various betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires, and 1/ST BET.

Check out which horses could thrive in the anticipated muddy conditions for your bets this Saturday!