2025 Wurth 400 Betting Insights: Longshot Picks for Texas Motor Speedway

Three teams have dominated the NASCAR at Texas Victory Lane of late, with 15 of the last 16 races at Texas Motor Speedway being won by either Hendrick, Stewart-Haas, or Joe Gibbs Racing. This lends a significant focus to the current betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook where drivers like Kyle Larson (+500), William Byron (+600), and Denny Hamlin (+800) lead the list.

Given their past successes, it might be wise to consider 2025 NASCAR Texas sleepers from these teams, such as:

Chase Briscoe (+1400)
Alex Bowman (+2200)
Ty Gibbs (+2500)

Austin Cindric recently triumphed at Talladega as a +1600 NASCAR longshot, indicating that it’s not solely the high-profile drivers to keep an eye on for the Wurth 400 picks. The race will commence at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Before finalizing any bets for the 2025 Wurth 400, ensure you check out the latest predictions from SportsLine’s reliable projection model. Developed by Mike McClure—SportsLine’s predictive data engineer—this model simulates every race 10,000 times and has accurately selected 20 winners since 2021, with two of those in 2025.

Here are three NASCAR longshots to consider according to the model:

Chase Briscoe (+1400 at Bet365)

After four years with Stewart-Haas Racing, Briscoe has joined another strong contender at Texas, Joe Gibbs Racing. JGR also has four victories at this venue, and Briscoe’s own record is impressive—achieving top 10 finishes in the past three Texas races, bringing a 7.0 average finish over those races. Notably, he finished in the top 15 during all four official races at Texas Motor Speedway.

Bet365 offers great value on Briscoe.

Kyle Busch (+1600 at DraftKings)

When Busch maintains control of his vehicle, he’s a serious contender for the NASCAR at Texas checkered flag. In his last 10 starts at Texas, he has secured seven top 10 finishes, with those omissions mostly due to accidents. His extensive success on 1.5-mile tracks collectively enhances his strong performance, making him a reliable pick.

Chase Elliott (+2000 at DraftKings)

After a couple of comparatively lackluster years, Elliott is back in contention for the Cup Series title and is currently ranked fourth ahead of the Wurth 400. He won this race last year and now has a real shot at it again.

Grab Elliott’s value at +2000 at DraftKings, as he’s generally listed at +1600 elsewhere.

To see the complete 2025 Wurth 400 predictions and the projected leaderboard, all thanks to the model that has successfully identified 20 winners, visit SportsLine. You can also get insights from expert Steven Taranto, who has nailed 17 NASCAR winners in the last year, including high-value longshots of more than +40 to 1.

2025 NASCAR Texas Odds, Drivers, Lineup

Kyle Larson +500
William Byron +600
Tyler Reddick +750
Denny Hamlin +800
Christopher Bell +800
Ryan Blaney +900
Joey Logano +1400
Chase Briscoe +1400
Kyle Busch +1600
Bubba Wallace +1800
Chase Elliott +2000
Alex Bowman +2200
Ty Gibbs +2500
Ross Chastain +2800
Josh Berry +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Brad Keselowski +3500
Daniel Suarez +4000
Carson Hocevar +7000
Austin Cindric +8000
Ryan Preece +9000
Noah Gragson +9000
Erik Jones +9000
Austin Dillon +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Michael McDowell +13000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +15000
Zane Smith +15000
Justin Haley +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Jesse Love +20000
Todd Gilliland +20000
Riley Herbst +30000
Cody Ware +30000
Cole Custer +30000
Ty Dillon +30000
Chad Finchum +30000
Shane Van Gisbergen +30000