The second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has been unpredictable, with underdogs claiming victories in every matchup leading to the upcoming games on Wednesday. The Boston Celtics, seeded No. 2, aim to even their series against the No. 3 seed New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference. Concurrently, the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder is looking to level the score against the No. 4 seed Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference. Nuggets’ standout player, Nikola Jokic, shone in Game 1 with 42 points, 22 rebounds, and 6 assists, generating an over/under of 28.5 points for Wednesday at DraftKings Sportsbook. Should you include Jokic in your player prop bets?

The SportsLine Projection Model analyzes every NBA game with 10,000 simulations, having returned over $10,000 for players betting $100 on its top-rated NBA bets over the last six-plus seasons. Data scientist Stephen Oh evaluated the simulation results, providing insights on today’s player prop values.

Al Horford Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+165)

Boston struggled in Game 1 with a dismal 3-point shooting performance, scoring 15 out of 60 attempts in an overtime defeat. Despite being 1 of 5 from the arc, Horford’s shooting volume is promising for exceeding the Over on Wednesday. The veteran maintained a shooting percentage above 36% from the 3-point line during the regular season and holds a 35% postseason average post-Game 1 of this round. SportsLine projects Horford to make 1.3 3-pointers, finding significant value at +165.

“He averages +0.4 more (2.0) at home than on the road and has succeeded in surpassing 1.5 made shots in 19 of 35 instances (54.3%)”. BetMGM offers the top odds at +165.

Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-106)

Oklahoma City will look for more scoring from Holmgren, who managed to net 12 points in Game 1 but missed critical free throws in closing minutes. With a regular-season average of 15.2 points, he has ramped up to 17.2 points in playoff matches. Being a proficient 78% free-throw shooter, he should have several opportunities at the line, especially considering his heightened minutes compared to the regular season.

“Chet had an impressive run prior to the last couple of games, often scoring 19+ in overs,” Oh noted. “Based on earlier performances, when he logs over 30 minutes, the Over record is 12-2.” With projections showing 16.1 points for Holmgren, the Over at 15.5 carries value. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the best price at -106.

Jalen Williams Under 28.5 points + assists (-120)

Williams faced a tough outing against Denver, accumulating 16 points and 4 assists in 37 minutes. Struggling with shooting, he only converted 5 of 20 attempts and 2 of 9 from three. This trend continues, shooting merely 26.7% from beyond the arc during these playoffs. With underwhelming totals in the playoffs, his combined points + assists tally has not exceeded 31 in this season’s playoff games.

The model predicts Williams will finish with 20.4 points and 4.8 assists, summing up to 25.2. The best odds on the Under 28.5 can be found on DraftKings, while FanDuel has adjusted the line to 27.5.

Want more NBA picks for tonight?

1. You’ve read the top player prop picks for Wednesday. Now, get NBA projections for every prop at SportsLine.
2. Access expert betting tips before finalizing your NBA picks or player props. Explore with expert Bruce Marshall to see his current picks which hold a record of 118-87-1 (+2222) over 206 bets.
3. SportsLine features multiple experts in player props and team strategies, including Matt Severance, who achieves a 156-86-1 (+3111) record across 243 NBA bets. Check Severance’s picks for Wednesday.