The 2025 NFL Draft has concluded, marking the beginning of a season focused on potential Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts. In early May, we often release our initial assessments for these players, understanding that plenty will shift over the next few months, but providing you with valuable insights ahead of September.

By August, the bust list will hinge on actual draft placements as indicated by consensus rankings in May, pivotal in determining true draft values. A player ranked in the first round but averaging only 12 points per game is labeled a bust, while the same player can be a valuable pick in the later rounds. With that framework, here’s my shortlist of five high-ranked players who may not meet expectations and five additional names who might struggle to contribute.

Two significant names fall under the bust umbrella: Josh Allen and Derrick Henry.

I hold both players in high regard; however, their ages and rankings raise flags. Although Henry leads in rushing attempts and touchdowns, drafting a 31-year-old running back in round one feels risky. He is currently placed as the 8th overall pick in drafts, and while he justified that position last year finishing RB4, the risk of a significant drop-off is looming.

Concerns with Allen arise from his recent performance. Ranked as QB1 at the two-three turn, his volume has dipped—483 passes thrown and only 102 rushing attempts, both figures at career lows. Other quarterbacks appear more appealing at my preferred draft positions.

Here are additional players on my initial bust list based on their rankings and forecast:

1. Mike Evans | WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers

   • Consensus Rank: 27th, Heath Rank: 61st, Projected Points: 263.6
   • Evans, set to turn 32, has potential challenges ahead, especially with new talent added to the roster.

2. Tyreek Hill | WR | Miami Dolphins

   • Consensus Rank: 32nd, Heath Rank: 47th, Projected Points: 261
   • Showed signs of decline last season; protective measures are needed for drafting.

3. Sam LaPorta | TE | Detroit Lions

   • Consensus Rank: 40th, Heath Rank: 69th, Projected Points: 192.8
   • Concerns regarding the Lions’ offense without coach Ben Johnson.

4. Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Carolina Panthers

   • Consensus Rank: 60th, Heath Rank: 79th, Projected Points: 161.8
   • Drafting a rookie attached to an inexperienced quarterback seems unwise.

5. Isiah Pacheco | RB | Kansas City Chiefs

   • Consensus Rank: 68th, Heath Rank: 109th, Projected Points: 139.4
   • Expected to lead in touches, but committee dynamics make his standalone value uncertain.

6. Mark Andrews | TE | Baltimore Ravens

   • Consensus Rank: 72nd, Heath Rank: 117th, Projected Points: 188.1
   • Health concerns coupled with competition for targets place him lower than desired.

7. George Pickens | WR | Dallas Cowboys

   • Consensus Rank: 76th, Heath Rank: 104th, Projected Points: 225.5
   • A critical decision awaits whether he can outshine fellow receivers or falter.

8. Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | New York Giants

   • Consensus Rank: 81st, Heath Rank: 110th, Projected Points: 148.1
   • Uncertainty looms over his position, making him more of a gamble than a secure pick.

With these insights, arm yourself with knowledge ahead of draft day to ensure smarter decisions.