The Denver Nuggets, holding the 4th seed, will host the 1st seed Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals this Sunday as the NBA playoffs progress. The Nuggets won Game 3, giving them a 2-1 series lead after a thrilling 113-104 overtime victory. During the regular season, these two teams were evenly matched, splitting their encounters 2-2.

Game Time: Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, where the Nuggets posted a solid 26-15 home record during the regular season.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are favored by 7 points with an over/under set at 228.5 total points. The Thunder currently sit at -290 on the money line, implying they need to risk $290 to earn $100, while the Nuggets are positioned as +235 underdogs. Additionally, the Thunder are favored -155 to be the first to score 10 points in the initial quarter.

Before making any decisions regarding betting on the Thunder vs. Nuggets match-up, be sure to consult the NBA statistics and betting advice provided by the SportsLine Projection Model.

Model Insights: This model runs simulations for every NBA game 10,000 times and has generated impressive returns of over $10,000 for $100 players based on top-rated NBA picks over the past six seasons. Currently, the model is on a hot streak of 159-116 on all top-rated NBA picks, including a 3-0 success in this playoff season, with nearly $4,000 in returns.

The Thunder have demonstrated strong performance this season with a 23-15-2 record against the spread as favorites on the road and a commendable 25-16-2 overall as traveling competitors. Moreover, they are 38-18-2 against the spread when both teams have shared the same amount of rest.

Watch out for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who leads the Thunder in both scoring and assists, averaging 28 points and 6.7 assists. His contributions have been significant, scoring 30-plus points in four of his last five games, including a standout 34-point game with eight assists in Game 2.

On the other hand, the Nuggets have also put up a solid fight, particularly as they enter this match-up 15-12-1 against the spread when viewed as underdogs. Denver has managed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games.

Key Nuggets Players: Center Nikola Jokic is essential to the Nuggets’ success, averaging 24.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 8.9 assists during the playoffs. Despite a challenging Game 3 where he scored only 20 points, his all-around gameplay will be crucial.

Final Thoughts: The SportsLine model suggests backing the under and forecasts a combined score projection of 218 points.

Whether you support the Thunder or the Nuggets, consult the SportsLine model to decide which side offers better spread value.