For the first time since 2006, the NBA Finals will showcase two teams seeking their inaugural championships, with the Oklahoma City Thunder facing the Indiana Pacers. Oklahoma City’s only previous title was secured while the franchise was still in Seattle, while Indiana’s title victories occurred during its time in the ABA. The series kicks off on Thursday, featuring Oklahoma City as the home team.

Here are the latest series odds: Oklahoma City is the -650 favorite (meaning you’d need to wager $650 to win $100) while Indiana sits at +475. The total games expected in this series is set at 5.5, with odds of O5.5 at +120 and U5.5 at -140. In Game 1, Oklahoma City is favored by 10 points, with the total points over/under at 230.

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Expert Picks

1. Thunder to win the series (-650)
2. Thunder to win in five games (+250)

According to SportsLine’s model, Oklahoma City is not just a favorite but nearly a lock, winning 93.5% of simulations, indicating a profit margin of plus-6%. Furthermore, the Thunder dominated the regular-season matchups, with one victory on the road without their key players, Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso, and a subsequent home win by 21 points.

In contrast, the Pacers have struggled against the Thunder, with Tyrese Haliburton averaging his lowest performance of the season against them. This defensive strength of Oklahoma City is key as they limit opponent shooting percentages effectively, while Indiana needs to find a way to compete offensively.

“Indiana’s chance hinges on Haliburton maintaining low turnovers while enhancing his scoring and assisting,” stated Oh. The odds of the Thunder winning in five games are also attractive at +250, indicating robust expectations from the betting model.