The 2025 NBA Finals kick off with the Oklahoma City Thunder facing the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 on Thursday night.
Matchup Overview
The Pacers reached the Finals after defeating the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks. The Thunder secured their place by overcoming the Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves. The game is slated to begin at 8:30 PM ET at Oklahoma’s Paycom Center. Oklahoma City is currently favored to win by 10 points, with an over/under line set at 230 points.
Betting Insights
The Pacers hold a record of 6-1 against the spread in their last seven away games, while the Thunder boast a perfect 9-0 against the spread in their previous nine matchups with Eastern Conference opponents.
Model Analysis
Our projection model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 bets based on top-rated NBA picks across the last six seasons. As the 2025 Finals approach, the model has seen considerable success, with a record of 160-118 on its best-rated NBA picks, producing nearly $4,000 in returns. It has also marked a strong 24-11 (69%) rate for top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Users following along with bookmakers and betting applications have likely enjoyed remarkable winnings.
Top Picks for the Game
Here are the model’s leading picks for this matchup:
- Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (-115)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-110)
- Tyrese Haliburton 9+ assists (-145)
- SGP payout: +531
Predictions
Thunder Spread -10 (-115)
The model predicts a significant victory for the Thunder, projecting a 15-point win against the Pacers. They have consistently covered the spread in four of their last six playoff encounters, including double-digit wins, three of which happened at home. In their last regular-season game against Indiana on March 29, they triumphed with a score of 132-111.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-110)
Shai has consistently performed remarkably well throughout the season, averaging 29.8 points per game in the playoffs. He has netted at least 34 points in five postseason games, including scoring over 35 points in three of his last six matches against the Pacers.
Tyrese Haliburton 9+ Assists (-145)
Haliburton leads his team with an average of 9.8 assists during the postseason, showing a knack for locating open teammates effectively. He has recorded nine-plus assists in 10 playoff outings this season.
