On paper, this year’s NBA Finals looks like a total mismatch. The Oklahoma City Thunder are -700 favorites with the Indiana Pacers at +500 (via FanDuel). You might be thinking: The Pacers are in the Finals, how can this be seen as such a lopsided series? Well, the Pacers come from the Eastern Conference. They are a very good team, but the West is a different animal. The odds are right.

Let’s start with the easiest, non-bold prediction. If the Thunder win, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the obvious favorite to win Finals MVP, as indicated by his -550 line.

Aaron Nesmith is set to be the key defender on SGA, but he might be hindered with an ankle injury and could struggle to avoid foul trouble. Andrew Nembhard will be challenged due to his size, while Pascal Siakam faces tough matchups against OKC’s forwards.

The anticipation around this series is high, but watch out for the Thunder’s advantages. Here are five bold predictions for the Finals:

1. Pacers luck runs out: Indiana has pulled off remarkable comebacks in the playoffs, but such luck cannot continue indefinitely. Historically, the chances are alarmingly low for teams winning after trailing by significant margins late.

2. OKC wins the 3-point battle: The Thunder have been taking more triples in the playoffs, while the Pacers hold a better shooting percentage. This performance will likely shift as the Thunder’s defense excels at limiting opponents.

3. Haliburton’s turnovers increase: Despite being a low-turnover player, Tyrese Haliburton may struggle against the high-pressure defense of OKC.

4. OKC records two 20-point wins: The Thunder have repeatedly proven their ability to dominate with significant margins in victories throughout the playoffs.

5. Thunder win in five games: Expect the Thunder to clinch the series 4-1, allowing the Pacers a rare win while showcasing their dominance overall. This prediction acknowledges the prowess of both teams and recognizes the intensity surrounding the Finals.