Oh, Andrew Abbott, deciphering your performance continues to perplex us. Throughout his career, I’ve struggled to fully grasp Abbott’s abilities, yet this season he seems to be finding his rhythm. Entering his latest game, he boasted a 1.51 ERA, a figure that, while likely unsustainable, indicates his best performance to date. Abbott has successfully combined elite contact prevention from last season with a career-high strikeout rate, resulting in a 3.05 expected ERA, significantly lower than the previous year. I’ve transitioned from skepticism to cautious optimism.
Yet, he stumbled against the Brewers, allowing five runs in six innings, marked by two home runs in consecutive innings, his first such occurrence since last August. This performance raises doubts—am I doubting Abbott again so soon? Not quite.
Despite the less-than-ideal results, Abbott’s pitching metrics reveal a more favorable picture. He collected seven strikeouts and achieved 13 swinging strikes on 100 pitches, demonstrating his dominance in the strike zone. Among 19 balls put into play against him, only five were hit with notable force. Therefore, even with the disappointing outing, Abbott largely maintained his effective style. His impressive 36% called-plus-swinging strike rate showcases his pitching skill, while one of the two home runs was on his seldom-used cutter, signifying no major cause for concern.
While I wouldn’t classify Abbott as an ace—merely someone in the middle-tier of starting pitchers—I believe he can be a solid addition to most lineups. However, his flyball rate in Cincinnati poses risks that need consideration. Should his strikeout rate regress to last year’s levels, his performance could decline due to his average control.
Conclusively, after nearly 200 innings over the previous two seasons, Abbott exhibits exceptional metrics for the quality of contact—ranking 14th out of 108 pitchers in expected wOBA on contact. While he may allow occasional homers, he typically induces weak fly balls that limit opportunities for hits, aiding in keeping his BABIP low.
His unconventional pitching style would have likely been dismissed as fluke quality in prior eras of analytics. However, his ability to minimize damage remains impressive, and if his strikeout rate hovers at or above the mid-20s, Abbott will continue to be a formidable pitcher—my skepticism notwithstanding.
