Impact of Kevin Durant on the Rockets' Title Chances Analyzed by SportsLine Model
An analysis of how Kevin Durant's transfer to the Houston Rockets improves their chances of winning the NBA championship.
Since the announcement of Kevin Durant’s significant move to the Houston Rockets, the team is being hailed as the standout winner of the offseason trade. Analysts, including CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn and Brad Botkin, have championed this strategic play for Houston, reflected in shifted championship odds by sportsbooks. Currently, the Rockets are listed at +750 by DraftKings as potential title winners, second only to the reigning champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
How substantial is the change in title prospects post-Durant’s acquisition? The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has the figures to shed light on this.
Before the trade, the forecast indicated Houston would secure 48.3 wins. With Durant joining the squad, this projection rises to 50.2 wins, providing the Rockets with a 5.0% championship probability.
| HOUSTON ROCKETS | WINS | WIN% | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN CONFERENCE | WIN CHAMPIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before trade | 48.3 | 58.90% | 81.10% | 5.72% | 2.27% |
| After trade | 50.2 | 61.20% | 91.20% | 8.90% | 5.00% |
| Difference | 1.9 | 2.30% | 10.10% | 3.18% | 2.73% |
“While the Rockets may seem to gain just two wins from this addition, those two games can be crucial when the margins for playoff seeding are razor-thin,” remarks Stephen Oh, the principal data engineer behind the model.
Durant’s addition fulfills the precise role the Rockets were missing: a dependable scoring option in crucial moments. Last season, despite achieving the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, Houston’s offense faltered at times, particularly under pressure during late-game situations. They ranked 28th in offensive efficiency late in the shot clock and 23rd during the fourth quarter. These weaknesses were exploited during their first-round playoff defeat against the Warriors.
Durant is an elite scorer, having averaged over 25 points per game for 16 consecutive seasons. At 36 years old, he scored an impressive 26.6 points per game last season, shooting 52.7% from the field and 43.0% beyond the arc.
“Kevin Durant’s exceptional offensive efficiency (valued at 10 points on the spread when active) provides exactly what Houston was searching for,” Oh stated.
