When it comes to Major League Baseball’s amateur draft, sometimes it’s all about the timing.
Take the case of Arkansas right-hander Gage Wood. If you weren’t familiar with him heading into the summer, you probably know his name now, after his 19-strikeout no-hitter against Murray State on June 16. (He was denied a perfect game only by a hit batsman.) Now, Wood is likely to be viewed as a player on the rise, with that particular performance serving as the launching pad.
Is that the whole truth? Eh, not really. Wood was already well regarded within the industry — I ranked him 20th in the class days earlier and noted he could go higher if his shoulder checked out. But it makes for a convenient narrative and, better yet, for a great segue into today’s topic: prospects who I think could go earlier than expected when the draft begins on July 13.
Below are four players who I think could be described as potential risers.
1. Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee
Fischer, a multi-time transfer who also logged innings at Duke and Ole Miss, was in consideration for the top 30 after an impressive platform season. He hit .341/.497/.760 with 25 home runs and more walks than strikeouts. Sometimes, overall seasonal lines are a mirage but Fischer posted a 1.214 OPS and launched 11 home runs in 30 games against SEC foes.
I opted against ranking Fischer for a few reasons, but one stands out above the rest: I’m generally bearish on collegiate first basemen. The offensive bar is tremendously high at the cold corner, reducing the margin of error on offensive projection.
Fischer has received a lot of comparisons to Billy Amick, another bat-first Volunteers corner infielder who went No. 60 last draft. I’ve had that in mind as Fischer’s likely landing spot, but the more I think about it, the more I could see a team looking at his performance against SEC opponents and his admittedly well-rounded advanced metrics and popping him earlier.
2. Charles Davalan, OF, Arkansas
Davalan just missed the top 30, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he sneaks into the back of the first round by the time draft night rolls around after he hit .346/.433/.561 with 14 home runs and 10 stolen bases over 65 games. I didn’t rank him because I’m not sure that a team will view him as a center fielder.
3. Josh Hammond, SS/RHP, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Hammond is technically a two-way player, though everyone I talked to expects him to end up as a third baseman. He has plus raw strength and a strong arm, though there are concerns about his approach.
4. Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
Kilby is a lanky lefty hitter with a feel for contact. Scouts doubt his ability to stay at shortstop, but he should find success elsewhere on the field.
