Draft Impact

The 2025 NBA Draft lacked suspense, as the standout from Duke, Cooper Flagg, was almost guaranteed the top pick by the Dallas Mavericks. The focus now shifts to what he might achieve in his first season.

Rookie Season Predictions

What will Flagg’s output look like in his debut? Let’s examine the current betting odds from DraftKings as of June 30.

Flagg’s projected statistics:

• Points per game:

  • Over 16.9: -115 (stake $10 to return $18.70)
  • Under 16.9: -115 (stake $10 to return $18.70)

• Rebounds per game:

  • Over 6.1: -115 (stake $10 to return $18.70)
  • Under 6.1: -115 (stake $10 to return $18.70)

Currently, Flagg is forecasted to average around 16 points and 6 rebounds during his rookie year.

Historical Comparisons

To gauge Flagg’s predicted stats, let’s compare them with points and rebounds per game from prior number one picks over the last decade:

• Zacharie Risacher (2024, ATL): 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds
• Victor Wembanyama (2023, SAS): 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds
• Paolo Banchero (2022, ORL): 20 points, 6.9 rebounds
• Cade Cunningham (2021, DET): 17.4 points, 5.5 rebounds
• Anthony Edwards (2020, MIN): 19.3 points, 4.7 rebounds
• Zion Williamson (2019, NO): 22.5 points, 6.3 rebounds
• Deandre Ayton (2018, PHX): 16.3 points, 10.3 rebounds
• Markelle Fultz (2017, PHI): 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds
• Ben Simmons (2016, PHI): 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds
• Karl-Anthony Towns (2015, MIN): 18.3 points, 10.5 rebounds

Among these, four—Wembanyama, Banchero, Simmons, and Towns—captured the Rookie of the Year award, with Flagg currently regarded as the favorite at -185.

Historically, only Risacher, Fultz, and Simmons recorded fewer than 16 points, while others mentioned fell short of 6 rebounds—levels Flagg aims to reach.

Wembanyama, Ayton, and Towns are the only recent number one picks to average double-doubles throughout their rookie season.

Career Background

While at Duke, Flagg demonstrated exceptional talent, averaging 19.2 points and 7.5 rebounds in just one season, earning numerous accolades, including the Wooden Award.

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